Sunday, October 31, 2021

Week 8 Thoughts

Photo courtesy Lafayette College

 Some thoughts following Lafayette's 24-23 win over Georgetown Saturday:

 1. Opportunities Lost: If you're new to Georgetown football, the next two analogies may be irrelevant, so apologies in advance.

The first quarter of Saturday's game harkened back to 1997, a game against Duquesne that may have been one of the greatest Georgetown home games of its era. In that game, the Hoyas opened the first quarter with a blocked punt for a touchdown, forced eight turnovers, and won the school's only recognized conference title in a 24-0 shutout of three time MAAC champion Duquesne.   It was one of two seminal games (the other being a convincing 1999 win at Holy Cross) that really got Georgetown thinking it could aspire to be something more than the MAAC, already taking on water by that time.

Fast forward to Saturday, where Georgetown pulled out all the stops--score a touchdown, run an on-sides kick. Force your opponent to a turnover on downs deep in its own territory. Outgain your opponent, at one point, by as much as 138 to 9. Fourteen minutes in Georgetown was up 17-0, the largest margin in a Patriot League game since it clobbered Lafayette 38-7 in the 2015 Cooper Field "re-naming" game.  Ten minutes later, it's 17-14. From then, it was a toss-up, because Lafayette had the kind of talent Georgetown wants to have, but which the PL admissions rules don't agree with.

The fourth quarter of Saturday's game harkened back to 2009, the dimming light of a winless season where Georgetown could simply not get anything right, none more so than in a 14-11 loss to Howard where Georgetown had a first and goal at the two yard line and settled for back to back quarterback sneaks on third and fourth down, netting a grand total of zero yards.

While not as dramatic, the finish to Saturday's game was redolent of a "just don't lose" strategy instead of making a winning decision. The Hoyas had just converted a fourth and six with a 13 yard pass to midfield. Two time outs and 3:15 to play...and yet Georgetown ran a total of six plays in the final 3:08, all to one player (Herman Moultrie). No wonder Lafayette shut it down.

To be fair, if Conor Hunt makes that field goal we'd call it a mastery of clock management. But a career long field goal on the final play of the game is no sure thing, and longer field goal attempts are, by nature, more of a lower elevation kick. Rob Spence's play calling was more favorable to a team that would run out the clock and either take a win or go into overtime.  The problem was that Georgetown wasn't going to overtime.

One more point about Lafayette. John Garrett isn't getting a statue at Fisher Stadium anytime soon and is probably a middle of the pack PL team. But he is embracing a youth movement in 2021 which will pay dividends down the road. The Leopards start a freshman quarterback, return their number 2 and 3 rushers, both its starting wide receivers, and its starting tight end. By contrast, Georgetown loses to graduation two of its top three rushers and its entire starting receiving corps. Which team will be better prepared heading into 2022?

2. When Fordham Was a Rivalry. Since 1984, Georgetown has played Fordham 25 times, winning just three. But Saturday harkens back to a day when there really was a rivalry between the schools.

On Nov. 6, 1971, Georgetown defeated Fordham 30-9 at on a beer-soaked Homecoming at Kehoe Field. "As good as the rest of the team may have looked, it was the defensive line's day as Georgetown's gridders blitzed Fordham's Rams in the Hoyas' first varsity homecoming game in 21 years last Saturday," wrote The HOYA.

 "The Fearsome Fivesome and Friends," Scotty Glacken's various defensive line combinations, did a job on the Rams that will be remembered as a major disaster to the Rose Hill mob for years to come. The Rams netted 30 ground yds. all day, but worse yet, their quarterback tandem of Desmond Lawe and Jim Hurley ended up eating the ball ten times as the overpowered Fordham offensive line couldn't stop the Hoya rush. 

Linemen Bill Brugger (voted the Homecoming Outstanding Defensive Player) and Dave McPhaden also got a rare chance to demonstrate their running ability as they ran back kicks for touchdowns. Even the fact that McPhaden's effort was called back did little to dampen the luster of the day for the Hoya line."

 The game was also known for some hijinks which would neither be anticipated by today's students nor appreciated by the University. 

Early in the fourth quarter, someone unplugged the Kehoe Field scoreboard for laughs. Later in the game, students tried to rush the field before the end of the game. 

Wrote The HOYA: "Some overeager rooters seized this occasion to dismantle the south goalpost, but possibly sparked by the threat of a forfeiture, Georgetown authorities and sundry other restored order; Scotty Glacken and his coaching, staff, stalwart Raymond "Pebbles" Medley and a covey of defensive backs including Leo McGill, Tim Graham and Jim Chesley quickly righted the posts and chased away the imbibers, preserving the day for the Hoyas."

 Expect neither this weekend.

3. D.C. Blues:  If you build it, they still aren't coming. Saturday's game drew an announced crowd of 2,437, with a healthy contingent from Lafayette and the inevitable erosion of student support. Students will stand three deep along the baseline of a soccer  game but they will walk nonchalantly past Cooper Field.

Whatever you think about how soccer is marketed versus the general local deemphasis of football as a distinctly Washington pastime, the calculus on Georgetown students is fairly linear: if you're winning, they support you. If you are not, they don't. It follows a local trend.

Football is 0-3 at home and is 5-13 over the last four full seasons. Gone are the days when students would commandeer a car on the weekend and drive up to see a road game....any road game Their entire experience of Georgetown football is five home games a year, with minimal promotion and scattered results. If GU doesn't do a better job to makes these games an event, the fans vote with their feet.

Football in DC has seen better days. Georgetown is 2-5 entering this weekend, Howard 2-6, Navy 2-6 and the Redskins are 2-6. Only Maryland (5-3) is above. 500, but must play Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan in the next three weeks.

Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Week 7 Thoughts

Some delayed thoughts (thanks to a computer crash) following Georgetown's 29-21 win over Bucknell Saturday.

1. Three Numbers, Revisited: Last week, we looked at three statistics which hovered over the Hoyas in midst of a four game losing streak. But against Bucknell, these numbers proved not only favorable, but pivotal for the Hoyas to earn the win.

The first figure was 33.8 is the average number of points allowed to date this season. It was unlikely Georgetown could surrender 33 points and win this game, but they held the Bison to just 21, second lowest this season and the fewest points in a PL game since these teams met in 2019.  It was also just the seventh game since 2012 that Georgetown won after an opponents scored 15 or more points.  For Georgetown to  have won, took a stronger offensive effort and a defensive stop or two, each of which was in evidence on Saturday.

The second number was 1.17, or Georgetown's yards per attempt on the ground to date in 2021, last in Division I. Instead, GU rushed for 225 yards, averaging 5.9 yards per carry.  Even of one removes Herman Moultrie's late game 34 yard run from the total, that's still a healthy number, because it opened up the offense and led GU to a 251 to 162 advantage in the air as well. Bucknell's defense isn't that good and Georgetown's next two opponents are considerably better, but a revitalized run game is good news for the Hoyas' ability to contend.

The third number was 1, as in one interception for the season to date and zero in the previous four games. The Hoyas picked off two interceptions versus the Bison, each coming at a critical time. One ended a Bucknell drive that reached the Georgetown 12 in the third quarter, while the second pick ended the Bison comeback hopes late in the game. For a defense that has had its struggles this season, Saturday was a step in the right direction.

And if you didn't catch this on the game recaps, some deserved recognition for punter Conor Hunt and the special teams: " Bucknell did not a start a single drive past its own 36, and its last four drives had an average starting position of its 18 yard line. Even with its three touchdown passes, BU did not have a single possession in the Georgetown red zone. Georgetown's last four drives had an average starting position of its 41 yard line, two of which netted the determinative scores of the game."

Well done all around.

2. Polar Power: Last week's marquee game in the PL was not at Bucknell nor at Fordham, but a minor-league baseball park in Worcester, where Holy Cross routed the Red Raiders of Colgate, 42-10 before a sellout of 9,508. The site was no accident.

(Photo credit; Worcester Telegram & Gazette)

While Holy Cross could certainly have hosted Colgate and brought in something close to 9,000, the game was a partnership with the City of Worcester and its new baseball stadium, Polar Park, home of the Red Sox' AAA franchise. For a city which once loyally supported the Crusaders in its major college days, the Worcester fan support has ebbed as Holy Cross migrated to the Patriot League. Fitton Field, seating 23,500, hasn't had a sellout since HC left for Division I-AA, when it hosted Boston College in 1986, below. 


The Eagles haven't come back, and at least until the numbers from last week, neither had the community.

The sight lines of a baseball stadium hosting football games are usually poor, whether you're in a minor league park or a Wrigley Field,  where the end zone is a tight fit against a outfield wall. But fans seemed to enjoy it and it's likely this will become an annual event in October, for a game named in honor the late Edward Bennett Williams, a 1941 Holy Cross grad and a 1944 Georgetown law grad. Perhaps  GU will figure into the rotation in future years. 

The game and the turnout also has opportunities for Georgetown as well. The University's effort in scheduling a larger venue for Harvard in 2017 was well meaning but the decrepit nature of RFK Stadium did not draw attendees. As I wrote on this site in 2017, "While traveling on the Metro to the game, a couple interrupted me and asked if I was going to the game. They were tourists from Toronto who had never seen a football game in person and were intrigued. The Blue Line car emptied out after Eastern Market and the couple asked why. Someone added that there are a lot of restaurants there. The couple politely got off at Potomac Avenue for a trip back to Eastern Market, and told me they might stop by the game after lunch. Whether they did, I cannot say, but there were people out there that Georgetown couldn't close the deal on."

The opportunity for Georgetown to take Holy Cross' lead and secure a future game at 20,000 seat Audi Field has been in speculation for years, but without an opponent that could really draw Washingtonians to go to a game.  No offense, but a Patriot League or Ivy League team isn't getting 10,000 or 15,000 people to a Georgetown game. But the amenities are there, at least in 2017, described as "31 luxury suites, 500,000 square feet of mixed use residential and commercial space, and parking for 447 bicycles for the sustainability-sensible crowd." 

"An aging RFK might have been too much for the upscale Washingtonians out there, but [Audi Field] will fit right in."

Neutral site games are not new to the PL (Fordham drew 21,000 at Yankee Stadium versus Holy Cross, for example) but they are new to Georgetown, especially in a city that hasn't supported them since the Griffith Stadium days, and maybe not even then.  Holy Cross' experiment for 2021 proved a success, and offers a healthy conversation at Georgetown for ways to grow the program.

3. Watch the CAA: When last we discussed this, there has been a lot of movement in the western half of Division I-A/FBS: Conference USA teams heading to the American Athletic Conference, others heading to the Sun Belt.  One that seems to be heading in that direction is James Madison, with potential changes to Eastern football.

"Our whole lives changed,” said Mickey Matthews, the former JMU coach who was at Coastal Carolina when that program upgraded to FBS. “And James Madison’s life will change immediately.

Matthews spoke to the Harisonburg News-Record about the secret in full view: James Madison is preparing to leave the Colonial Athletic Association and chase the dreams of big-time football.

"Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern and Georgia State already reside in the conference while Old Dominion and Marshall are expected leave Conference USA to join the Sun Belt at the same time as the Dukes," says the paper.

"So, there’s going to be some transition, there’s no doubt, because believe me, you’re not going to be playing Richmond anymore," Matthews said. "You’re going to be playing some good teams. I watched Coastal Carolina and Appalachian play the other night, and I thought, ‘Man, those programs have better players than James Madison right now.’ But as time goes along, you’re going to get your share of football players."

The most formidable conference in I-AA, the CAA hasn't had to add a team in quite a while. But do they, and if so, whom?

Monmouth is a willing suitor but they really don't fit the CAA blueprint--successful private schools to the south and a collection of state schools up north. Any changes at the seven team Patriot League or six team MEAC put those conferences in serious jeopardy of folding. But if you're Richmond, if you're Villanova, or William & Mary, you're now in the game of musical chairs. Go searching for a replacement team, or start looking yourself? Hunt, or be hunted?

As Big East basketball fans learned a decade ago, there's always collateral damage when teams move, even if it's not your team. The Patriot League may be among the slowest conferences to react, but they need to be paying attention. And so do their fans.


Monday, October 18, 2021

Week 6 Thoughts

 Some thoughts following Holy Cross' 48-14 win over Georgetown Saturday.

1. Three Numbers. If you never saw this game, it wouldn't have taken much to consider Georgetown the underdog, and a considerable one at that. Holy Cross entered as two-time Patriot League champs and are likely favorites for a winner-take-all meeting versus Fordham in early November. Georgetown is none of these and no one will mistake an early win at Delaware State for an early win at Connecticut.

But the numbers aren't just about Holy Cross' dominance but speak to some significant underperformance in the Hoyas this far this year.  It's not about Rob Sgarlata's "the one percent" or even what Sgarlata's predecessor used to call "fanatical effort". Here are three numbers that tell the tale of the 2021 season to date:

  1. 33.8
  2. 1.17
  3. 1

Let's look at each of them.

First, 33.8 is the average number of points allowed this season, 96th among 123 I-AA/FCS teams this season. By itself, that's a daunting number and not a lot of winning programs can  give up as many points and be competitive. But as a comparison to recent Georgetown teams, it's a point of concern.

Here are the average points allowed over the last five seasons:

2019: 16.6

2018: 21.0

2017: 27.2

2016: 23.3

2015: 26.9

In fact, you have to go back to the 2007 season (1-10) for a comparable points per game like 2021. It's compounded by Georgetown's traditionally low scoring offense and, as we noted earlier in this series, the Rule of 15.

If you're giving up 33 a game, you need to be scoring 34, and the last Georgetown team to do that was in 1978.

The defense as a whole has been disappointing. We may see an improvement against Bucknell, if only because the Bison offense is fairly underwhelming on its own (8.5 points per game), but it doesn't address the issue: Georgetown can't be giving up this many points and win games.

1.17 is the number of yards per attempt on the ground this year. That's the fewest of any Division I school, FBS or FCS. Georgetown may not be a run-first offense by any means, but it's not a tenable figure when defenses can sag back in the secondary and let their lines clean up on the ground. 

This is not some indiscretion of youth. While the Holy Cross announce team was charitable in discussing that Georgetown was a very young team, that's not the case in the backfield. Three of Georgetown's four leading rushers are graduating in 2022, and another is a junior. Freshman Naieem Kearney may have a productive future but he certainly can't do it alone in 2022. This may be for a longer term discussion, but while Georgetown is a "young" team, its starting line up is not: ten of 11 offensive starters graduate in 2022, eight of 11 on defense.

Only one Georgetown rusher since 1996 has averaged six or more yards per carry, and not since 2003. The leading rusher in 2021 is at 2.2 yards, which at present is the lowest in the modern era.

Finally, the number 1. One, as in interceptions, as in none since the second quarter of the Delaware State game. Maybe it's not fair to compare this defense to the 2018 defense that combined for a remarkable 20 interceptions in 11 games. Or even 2019, with 12 INT's to its credit.  But one? Georgetown is one of five schools with that statistic, and for a defense which leads by example, it's an abrupt turn of events from the teams which preceded them.

Of these three cautionary numbers, points per game stands at the top. Given Georgetown's offense, the Hoyas aren't going to overwhelm anyone on offense, having scored more than 31 points just three times in the last ten years against PL opponents. Defense gives the Hoyas a chance, but if there 's no defense, there's no chance, run game or not. 

2. Dwindling Coverage. File this away for 2022 off season, but while ESPN+ makes watching the game easier, the lack of coverage overall continues to atrophy across the league.

I noticed that Holy Cross no longer broadcasts the game on radio, and by extension, online. Whether it was the late Bob Fouracre or a student group at WCHC, radio is a victim of streaming. As a student editor told me a few years ago, students don't listen to radio and even he was unaware Georgetown basketball was on it, and didn't know who Rich Chvotkin was.

Bucknell's Doug Birdsong now broadcasts the Bison on ESPN+, with his distinctive voice that could pass for Baylor's frenetic John Morris. The radio still lives in rural Pennsylvania, and there should be a place for it within college football. But the transistor radio of days gone by has become an iPhone. 

And when radio's gone, it's gone. The last Georgetown games on the radio date to the early 2000's. No one has picked up the mantle since, including WGTB, to whom radio is just one extended music set, devoid of news, sports, or comment. I could go on at length about the futility of WGTB as a lost opportunity in engagement within the community, but  here's one: this is WGTB's 75th anniversary, and it will pass without notice in 2021. QED.

3. FCS Conference Realignment: It's dog-eat-dog at the major college ranks this fall, with the SEC biting off two from the Big 12 and the Big 12 biting off three from the American Athletic Conference (AAC). This week, the AAC did its part by announcing it'll take six-six schools from Conference USA to show it means business. The league that once held the football likes of Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh as fthe pre-2013 Big East football league will now add football names such as Texas-San Antonio, Charlotte, and Florida Atlantic.

The food chain appears to be contained to FBS with one exception: James Madison. The Dukes have made no secret of seeking a status beyond the CAA as did their cross-commonwealth peer in Old Dominion once did.  JMU would prefer the Sun Belt, they of such schools as Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Arkansas State, but the Sun Belt may sit this round out. Would the remainder of Conference USA (Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, ODU, Western Kentucky, Southern Miss)  take a chance on James Madison?

Early signs are, as the magic eight-ball says, cloudy. But a future move by James Madison opens a seat in the CAA, and  with it, a question: what Eastern schools would be suitable candidates? Probably not NEC schools, probably not MEAC. A school at full scholarship football and an ability to play at a high-major level, at least as FCS is constructed. 

Georgetown? No. But one or two other PL schools fit that bill. Let's park this for now, but if the Dukes move up, watch to see who pays attention.


Sunday, October 10, 2021

Finishing Touches For Cooper Field


There is a fitting if unfortunate thought that came to mind when learning that Georgetown was delaying the formal dedication of Cooper Field to 2022. We've waited this long, what's another year?

And so, 23 years after first proposed, 17 years its groundbreaking, seven years after the naming gift, and three or four years since everyone figured it would eventually be done,  will come 2022. And there we will be, God willing. 


There will be another time and place to discuss what the lesson of the Multi-Sport Facility saga was. It wasn't what was planned, nor what was promised to recruits, nor donors. The double deck seating and glass-paneled concourse has been relegated to a dusty corner of the archives that collects those grandiose plans of Georgetown that never were.  


Cooper Field arrives as valuable and as needed as ever. In some ways, the project morphed from a grand multi-sport experience to a more utilitarian purpose: much-needed locker room space with seating. And without the naming gift, one wonders where this project (and this field) would be today.

In the interim year, the locker rooms will be busy and the field will be active. But there are some opportunities to add a little extra to what has been committed to, to make the fan experience at Cooper Field an even better one, however distinct from more optimistic eras.  

Here are three thoughts to "completing" what's already completed. 

1. Visitor Seating. What was once a plan for 5,600 seats kept getting whittled down, and as we've seen, the most visible cut in its final product was the removal of permanent visitor seating. But like a lot of things at Georgetown, there's a story behind it. Two, in fact.

Facilities at Georgetown are a Rubik's cube--make one change, and you rearrange a couple more. Cooper Field lies on the axis of one of the last two undeveloped parcels of land on a campus to whom "green space" is a metaphor for overbuilding.  That open trapezoid to the north east of Cooper Field, abutting Regents Hall, is already being eyed for an academic building, while the Harbin patio, just to its south, is a candidate for yet another dormitory project over the next decade.  The academic building and the dorm won't take over field space but the construction equipment required to stage, excavate, and eventually build a multi-story building over 12-18 months (and maintain right of way) could very well have been affected by a permanent seating structure on the east side stands. 



And then the Rubik's cube turns again. For by 2029, which is almost as far away as 2013 is right now, the Yates Field House will be 50 years old, or about 20 years past its usable life. Built entirely out of concrete in 1979, moisture has a way of settling a score with concrete, and leaks have damaged thee facility for years. The University has spent millions to keep it up and running rather than eating the costs of a full rebuild, which could be well over $120 million for a building that cost $7.5 million and took two years to build.  

When this happens, the soccer teams may be temporarily relocated to Cooper Field, which in a football configuration is not wide enough for a regulation soccer field. Not having permanent seats would allow GU to extend the width of Cooper Field from 53 yards to 70 yards--a little on the west, a little on the east. 

(Did I say nothing is easy at Georgetown?)

There is no date for either a new dorm or a new recreation center. A few years, a decade or two. But is there an opportunity to reconstruct what existed on that sliver of land for the last 16 years, that is, temporary seating?

The previous configuration supported somewhere between 600 and 800 seats along the east side, sans concessions or rest rooms. Maybe GU doesn't need that many today, but the ability to have some basic, ADA accessible seating for fans who wants to sit with their team is not only a good idea, but a reasonable one. It's very much a temporary effort which would go away when or if construction takes place, and adds something to the overall feel of the place (and would improve capacity over 4,000 should GU ever schedule a football or lacrosse game where the "lawn seating" would be overwhelmed.)


Temporary seating won't ruin Cooper Field, but might make it a little more like a stadium and less like there's something missing. 

2. Video Board.  When Multi-Sport facility planning was in full force way back when, a video board may have been seen as an extravagance, something for NFL teams., Well, time marches on, and it's not just NFL teams, but most college teams and even many high schools. This is 2021, after all.

And among the Last Amateurs? Every Ivy stadium now has a video board, even the Yale Bowl, that great relic which stands alone as if, as it was once said, to "stand athwart history, yelling "Stop!", at a time when no one is inclined to do so." 

In 2019, Lehigh and Holy Cross became the fifth and sixth PL schools with a video board. The lone PL stadium without one? Cooper Field.

Georgetown's present scoreboard is not as old as the Yale Bowl once used, but it's old. The scoreboard  setup predates football on the lower field, having been installed for soccer circa 1994. 


Now is the time to raise the funds for a video board to debut in 2022. These do not come cheap but there is no better "wow" factor in college sports (or fandom) today than to see a defender or a fan in the stands on a 4K 1080p view at the game.  The planned scoreboard location in the southeast corner of Cooper Field is still there, untouched, and could host a board not unlike that employed by Colgate, below.


And if Georgetown can't or won't find the funds, may I make a modest suggestion? When last RFK was opened for business to feature Georgetown and Harvard, there were two reasonably modern video boards which had been installed there earlier that year for DC United. Sometime in the next two years or so, RFK will be imploded and unless someone takes out those boards, they may go down in the rubble.  Anyone interested in making an offer to Events DC for an early relocation? 


3. Recognition. Outside of a sign on the gate, Cooper Field may be the most generic stadium in college football, with little or nothing on (or around it) that says "Georgetown".  And unlike the cost to being  aforementioned video boards to the field, the ability to bring some visibility to Georgetown football in its own home is relatively low cost effort.

Many high school, college, and minor league stadia use a popular form of vinyl covering known as a windscreen or "privacy fence", which can easily be placed along a wall or fence to promote their teams or, at the very least, its accomplishments. You see this at Shaw Field when Georgetown rightfully salutes the championships of its' men's and women's teams. 


Cooper Field had an ever-generic "We Are Georgetown" wrapping along the sides of the east stands, some of which is still visible but badly faded. Why not wrap that fencing with something specific to Georgetown football? 

These windscreens are not expensive (a 10' x 30 yard roll starts as little as $150 before customization) and easily swapped out--when it's springtime, roll out the lacrosse covering with their recognition.

On first glance, Georgetown football does not appear to have the titles and championship bona fides of its lacrosse or "association football" brethren. What does it have? 

1941 Orange Bowl, check.  

1950 Sun Bowl, check. 

1993 Bermuda Bowl? That might be a stretch.

1997 MAAC Champions.

What the Hoyas lack in NCAA appearances it has in history. Georgetown could take a page from Holy Cross, who recognizes its football greats along the wall at Fitton Field. 


So whom could Georgetown honor? There are 60 football members of the Athletic Hall of Fame, so that might be a big list. There are 26 All Americans (including the five club All-America selections), and that's a number that, when presented over 40 or 50 yards, makes the point to players and opponents alike that some really good players have come through Georgetown, even if most never played at this field.  

Here are the 26, with number and last name:


And that's what this suggests: we recognize those who came before us, we inspire those to join the list. One of the reasons the Athletic Hall of Fame display in the Leavey Center is more impactful than something lost in a corner of McDonough Gymnasium is that it is visible to guests as well as those familiar with the names on those plaques.  Our guests to Cooper Field are, in almost all cases, unaware of those who played here before. Putting their name on a sideline wall at Cooper Field is small but important way of saying thanks, and adds to a story that football at Georgetown has permanency, relevance, and purpose.

So barring war, terrorism, civil insurrection, or another pandemic, next fall we may all be able to gather and salute the conclusion of  this 20 year odyssey. And a little lagniappe wouldn't hurt, either.

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

Week 5 Thoughts

 Some thoughts following Colgate's 28-21 win over Georgetown Saturday:

1. Predictable, Part 1: Looking at these two teams entering this game led few, if anyone to suggest that the 18th meeting between the Hoyas and Red Raiders would go the way 16 other matchups did. Colgate has been a rushing team since the days of Mark van Eeghen, and 2021 Georgetown cannot stop the run. But even as Colgate followed modern form with more passes than rushing attempts, the lack of depth on the Georgetown front line took its toll early, and late. 

Colgate scored on each of its first three possessions and that's nearly an insurmountable task for a Georgetown team to overcome. Yes, the Hoyas were never out of it until the end, but you can't spot a team like Colgate 14 points and not be fighting uphill the rest of the way. Georgetown has been outscored 48-9 in its last three games through the first quarter. and the last two games are even more illustrative. GU fell behind Columbia and Colgate 14-0 each, yet combined to outscore them 24-21 and 21-14 thereafter, to no avail.

The Hoyas are traditionally not a comeback team and games like this are evidence of same. Getting to 21-21 at the end of the third quarter was a sign of hope but Colgate's 10- play drive into the fourth quarter, aided by two dumb defensive penalties, put the game away. 

Field position never favored the Hoyas. Georgetown did not start a single drive beyond its 35 yard line, while Colgate had all but two start at the 35 or better and each of its last four.

Whether it was Dick Biddle, Dan Hunt, or now Stan Dakosty, Colgate is a tough out for Georgetown and the matchups never seem to favor Georgetown. It's not likely to change, either.

2. Predictable, Part 2: Through four games, the Georgetown running game is right where it has been for years: near the bottom of the rankings: 121st of 123 in yards per game, and 123rd in yards per carry. 

This is not a statistic specific to Joshua Stakely or Herman Moultrie, it's a team problem: an offensive line that is not opening holes, a lack of recruiting beyond the undersized, overlooked backs that often find their way to the GU backfield, and a lack of play calling when the rush makes sense and when it does not. None of the two RB's have rushed form more than 12 yards in any carry and combine for just 42 yards a game and 1.8 per carry.  Georgetown has averaged more than 5.9 yards per carry in just one game over the past 24 seasons. Opponents scout Georgetown and know this.

Crazy as it might sound, Georgetown is not at the bottom of the PL in rushing, as #122 on the national list is winless Lehigh, with 43.8 yards per game compared to Georgetown's 53.8. But when the Hoyas allow 208 yards to opponents, therein lies the problem. GU;'s next opponent in Holy Cross averages 173 yards a game and 4.8 a carry. Second down and five always beats second and eight.

How does this ever change? It's not easy. Scholarship-caliber running backs do not gravitate to non-scholarship programs, and even those that do aren't looking at the Patriot League. Harvard's Aaron Shamplklin (376 yards) has out-rushed the entire Georgetown stat sheet with one fewer game, and he's not even in the top 20 nationally. In fact, he's the only non-scholarship player in the top 50 in I-AA/FCS among the individual rushing leaders. 

Suffice to say, it's a recruiting target. Lots of good backs come out of the local DC area and Georgetown isn't getting them. The 2022 Hoyas return only two RB's from the 2021 roster: junior Joshua Stakely and freshman Naieem Kearney. The staff has a lot of hope in Kearney, but he can't do it alone.

3. This Week In The Patriot League: Georgetown and Holy Cross are both on bye.  Both Colgate and Fordham figure to reach .500 this week. 

Colgate (2-3) at Brown (0-3), 1:30 pm

Bucknell (1-3) at Lafayette (1-4), 12:30 pm

Lehigh (0-5) at Pennsylvania (1-2), 1:00 pm

Wagner (0-5) at Fordham (2-3), 1:00 pm


Tuesday, September 28, 2021

Week 4 Thoughts

 Some thoughts following Georgetown's 35-24 loss to Columbia on Saturday:

1. Depth. I'll admit I was very disappointed following the Harvard loss for the beat down that the Crimson inflicted, a product of better talent and better coaching. That same fervor was not found in the loss to Columbia. Georgetown's problems entering PL play are much the same as they have always been.

Georgetown remains the singular "one-off" in Division I-AA/FCS because of its inability to recruit the same way 108 other FCS schools do, hampered further by the Patriot League's irrational reliance on SAT scores to reflect "smart" athletes. But even this approach is tested by attrition. The game one injuries of Owen Kessler and Quincy Chinwuko have really hurt the defensive depth of this team. In 2018, the Hoyas' run defense held opponents to 103 yards a game on the ground, but by the first three games of 2021 that figure is now 232.7 yards a game, ranking Georgetown 115th of 123 schools.  

While the experience is there on the starting lineup, the Hoyas cannot control the line. Columbia's ability to get penetration on first down (and an average of 5.5 yards per carry) afforded it a lot more opportunity to control the clock as it did on the consequential fourth down drive. That's a point of concern entering Saturday's game, where Colgate   ranks eighth nationally in average yards per carry at 4.02. The Red Raiders rushed 44 times last weekend versus Lehigh for an average of 6.4 yards a carry and was 5-5 in the red zone. 

Colgate was outscored 102-10 in its first three games (Boston College, Stony Brook, William & Mary) but its 30-3 win over Lehigh may have turned a corner. If they stay on the ground, the Georgetown line has a lot of heat coming their way, much of that a measure of depth and lack of experience. 

Depth is again evident across the line in a Georgetown rushing game that is really not producing. The Hoyas' 1.6 yards per carry is 122nd of 123 schools by average and by yards per game. Colgate's numbers are skewed by BC and William & Mary, but they held Lehigh to 55 yards on 26 carries and that won't be enough Saturday.

Far, far removed from Georgetown, think of this example--why is Alabama so good? Look at the depth. The Crimson Tide can lose Jaylen Waddle, Patrick Surtain, DeVonta Smith, Mac Jones, Alex Leatherwood, Najee Harris (all in the first 20 picks of the 2021 NFL first round) and it's next man up, and the Tide still rolls. 

Coach Sgarlata likes to say "win, or learn". Without depth, there's a lot to learn.

2. A Great Debut. The Patriot League chose not to award QB Pierce Holley its offensive player of the week, and they missed on this one. One would be hard pressed at any level to find an example of a quarterback in his first collegiate start throwing for 368 yards.

Holley was ably assisted by a command performance from senior Cameron Crayton, whose 190 yards receiving has been topped by only four other men in school history. No recency bias here - this was an outstanding effort and probably the most impactful wide receiver output since Luke McArdle's 190 yards receiving and 182 yards punt return yardage against Cornell in 2003. 

For its part, Columbia had no film on Holley and probably didn't even practice with him in mind, as Tyler Knoop finished the Harvard game. Colgate has the game film and I expect them to be more aggressive on Holley, especially as he rolls out, than the Lions were in that game.

How long Holley stays in the lineup is unknown outside McDonough Gym. The extent of Joe Brunell's ankle injury is, like most things Georgetown, undisclosed. As  junior, Holley made a statement with the effort in the Columbia game, and should be a point of emphasis to see if he can maintain an improved passing game Saturday versus Colgate,  especially if the ground game flatlines.

3. Nobody's Coming  Home: What's the saying, "don't do anything that you wouldn't feel comfortable reading about in the newspaper the next day? Such was Georgetown's "abundance of caution" mantra in canceling Homecoming this year, despite a COVID-19 positivity rate of 0.2 percent in last week's testing protocols.

It's one of the few schools to take this approach. One sees the large crowds in college football elsewhere without any widespread infections that have follow, but GU has been erring on the side of canceling visible events outside the student body - (Reunion, graduate school events, Alumni Association weekends, etc.) but still maintaining student centered events like New Student Orientation.

It's not clear how many would have shown up anyway given the East Coast's more COVID-averse gathering than its western and southern neighbors--even Howard is canceling its Yardfest that often outdraws the football game itself. Homecoming at Big Ten and SEC schools continue unabated.

And while this decision was made months ago, an unusual confluence with another health event supports the idea that this may not be  the weekend to be on campus.

"More than one hundred students, faculty and staff on Georgetown University’s campus have reported nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and stomach cramps,  all symptoms that could be consistent with norovirus, officials said Monday, " read the Sept. 27 Washington Post. "University leaders first reported the gastrointestinal illness Sept. 21, after about 12 students on the main campus in Northwest Washington reported severe stomach pains, vomiting and diarrhea. Days later, that number grew to 90 and “fewer than 15” people had been transported to emergency rooms, officials said. As of Monday, 130 students and employees had reported some combination of symptoms."

The last outbreak of norovirus (formerly called "food poisoning") took place 13 years ago this week and forced the  cancellation of the Colgate-Georgetown game. No such prognosis this time around, but the presence of thousands of recent grads in close quarters during Homecoming would have been a risk factor to spread norovirus and some nasty symptoms, among them the aforementioned vomiting and diarrhea.

A safer Homecoming in 2022 awaits.

4. This Week In The Patriot League: The league went 3-3 last week an are now 6-18 in non-conference play to date. Games include the following, all of which may be found on ESPN+.

Yale (1-1) at Lehigh (0-4), 12 noon

Colgate (1-3) at Georgetown (1-2), 12:30

Harvard (2-0) at Holy Cross (3-1), 1:30

Cornell (0-2) at Bucknell (0-3), 3:30

Fordham (1-3) at Lafayette (1-3), 3:30


Monday, September 20, 2021

Week 3 Thoughts

Some thoughts following Georgetown's 44-9 loss to Harvard Saturday:

1. Unpopular Opinion, But...Why are we playing Harvard?

Maybe the question is not exactly why, but why still. Yes, I'm familiar with the obvious answers (Ivy League school, prestige, it's in the fight song, etc.), but why still?

In five games, this has not been a fair fight. Harvard has outscored Georgetown 195 to 31, and the game is even more pronounced in halftime when the Crimson go into cruise control: in five first halves, the difference is 136-21.

These mismatches (including the last two by a combined 85-11) are not so much a reflection of Georgetown as it is that Harvard recruits at a much higher level of talent and the results are on the field. In 2021 there are six former Harvard players in the NFL--the other seven Ivy schools combined for just seven. That extra spring in the step of a Aidan Borguet or Aaron Shampklin is part of a Harvard recruiting system that if doesn't put the other Ivies to shame, at least it gives them pause. It's the only Ivy program that can make a credible offer that four years for the Crimson could offer pro opportunities in addition to its education. It's also the Ivy that can offer a recruit practically a free ride to nearly every recruit.

Yes, Harvard traditionally starts off its season strong. The Crimson are an astounding 120-45-2 in season openers. But a slower, less offensively minded Georgetown team is tailor-made for Harvard to get up early and run away. A 13-9 score midway in the first quarter was hopeful, but as soon as Harvard scored on its next two possession, the die was cast.

Yes, playing Harvard in week 3 is more appropriate than, say, a 69-0 win over Catholic. But 2021 Georgetown isn't competitive with the style of play Harvard offers, any more than 2021 Georgetown could stay within range of an Army team that would run the triple option for 45 minutes a game. It's just not a game Georgetown is competitively suited for, and that speaks to the regular disparity in the scores.  The Hoyas are no closer to staying with the Crimson as they were in 2014, when they lost 34-3 at the former Multi Sport Field.

Yes, Georgetown will still return Tim Murphy's phone calls because it's Harvard. For Tim Murphy, it is a nice recruiting trip and a safe win. Emphasis on both.

2. Points Matter: Georgetown's offense was curtailed yet again Saturday, especially on the ground. But despite some stellar defensive ply, nine points doesn't win many football games. And with the possible exception of Bucknell, no other PL team scores as few points as Georgetown.

It leads to what I call the Rule of 15: Since 2012, Georgetown has averaged just 15.4 points per game. In games where it allows fewer than 15 points, Georgetown is 23-4.

In games where it allows more than 15 points, Georgetown is 6-56.

Two touchdowns a game is just not enough in the current era of college football. Through two games, Georgetown is averaging 14.5 points a game, 102nd of 122 schools. A smaller offensive line, smaller running backs, and a lack of time for the quarterback are all contributory factors but it puts a lot of pressure on the defense.  The offensive staff has to find a way to be more aggressive down the field to get points earlier in a game. Interceptions aren't good, but neither is ranking 117th nationally in red zone penetrations, which just five on the season to date.

3. Around the Patriot League: What a mess.

Holy Cross (2-1) and Georgetown (1-1) have combined for three non-conference wins this season. The other five teams are a combined 0-15.

Fordham, with admittedly tough competition in Nebraska and Florida Atlantic, is 0-3, outscored 123-44. But they're the best of a really poor bunch. Lafayette has been outscored outscored 78-30. Colgate, once a regular championship contender, has been outscored 102-10. Bucknell, never an offensive juggernaut, checks in at 106-9. The most surprising is Lehigh, outscored 110-6.

Veteran Patriot League sports columnist Chuck Burton discussed this last week. "It is not so much that what Villanova, Richmond or Princeton are doing is unfair," he wrote.  "They are abiding by NCAA rules and conference rules, which allow them to do these things.  But it demonstrates how Patriot League schools, by sitting pat, have put their student-athletes way behind the eight ball."

"In 2015, the entire FCS landscape was different," he continued.  "The Ivy League was largely adhering to self-imposed rules on recruiting and roster sizes - those changed.  The CAA was adhering to redshirt rules that had the practical effect of limiting the number of extra-year players - that changed.  And while those leagues were expanding their rosters and opportunities, the Patriot League was doing the opposite - they were migrating towards restricting rosters and limiting extra-year players.  And I firmly believe that explains the sudden, precipitous drop in competitiveness in the league across the board in the last five years... This isn't 2015 anymore.  The game has evolved and moved on, and it's high time the Patriot League did the same."

4. Cooper Field Review: I wasn't able to attend the Cooper Field opener but will have some thoughts in two weeks. If you did, drop a note on the HoyaTalk board with your thoughts.