Week 10 Thoughts

 

Some thoughts in the wake of Lehigh's 24-9 win over Georgetown this past week and the 2021 season finale upon us:

Sputtering. If one word can encapsulate the 2021 season, this may be it. While no one at Georgetown entered 2021 with plans for the FCS playoffs, an expectation was that the season would show progress. Outside of the football office, it's been difficult to see it.

Georgetown started its first drive of the second half Saturday driving 57 yards in nine plays, the longest drive of the first half. Next four possessions: punt, punt, stopped on 4th down, fumble. Second half: 69 yards in 13 plays, followed by punt, punt, punt, an 4th down. The last four drives consumed 12 plays and eight yards. And the weather was improving in the second half. Saturday's game marked the sixth game this season where Georgetown could not muster 100 yards and the fifth where it could not gain 60.

The offensive line looks beaten up, the rushers look a step slow on every play. Its only returning underclassman  in the backfield has rushed the ball once in the last seven games. The Hoyas eschewed the youth movement this and went all-in on a lineup heavy on seniors, grad students, and fifth years. The results have been underwhelming.

Even head coach Rob Sgarlata dispensed with the usual optimism in last week's letter.

"I was proud of our overall effort and ability to adapt to the challenging conditions," he said. "That being said, our execution was inconsistent."

Execution should not be an issue in week 10. And it is. It's only a tribute to the historic ebb that the Patriot League is in that Georgetown was not swept by the entire league this year. Instead, with five PL teams in the bottom 30 nationally, the Hoyas can do no worse than a tiebreaker over 1-9 Bucknell for last place. Given Bucknell's assignment versus PL titleist Holy Cross this Saturday, that is highly unlikely. But if all Georgetown can do is hang its collective hats on a fifth place finish, it speaks to a season that never led anywhere.

It also speaks to a schedule that was very linear--GU beat two teams even further below them in the ratings (Delaware State, Bucknell) and lost to everyone above them. If the Hoyas play to form, they are slight favorites against a  Morgan State team that has one win all season--Delaware State, by six--the same outcome as Georgetown.

No upsets, no surprises. No momentum.

National Rankings: Georgetown's ranking out of 123 schools entering the final week of play:

Points Scored: 104th

Points Allowed: 88th

Rushing Offense: 122nd

Passing Offense: 27th

Total Offense: 91st

Rushing Defense: 108th

Passing Defense: 31st

Total Defense: 74th

Sacks Made: 110th

Sacks Allowed: 104th

This Week In The Patriot League: Three league games finish the season, with only Holy Cross advancing to the playoffs. If you're old enough to remember when a second place finish was a likely at-large bid for the PL, well, you're getting older.

Lafayette (3-7) at Lehigh (2-8), 12:30 pm. The 157th meeting of this rivalry is certainly at a low point, probably not since 1966 when both teams were this low in the win-loss column. Head coaches John Garrett and Tom Gilmore are a combined 24-48 over the past three seasons and there are probably more than a handful of fans in maroon and/or brown hoping for a "loser leaves town" match, which isn't happening. As to the outcome, it's a coin flip.

Fordham (6-4) at Colgate (4-6), 1:00 pm. The what-if game: what if Fordham hadn't built a ridiculous non-conference schedule with Nebraska and Florida Atlantic?  What if they hadn't allowed a 100 yard kickoff return at home versus Monmouth, a game they lost by three? Is this an eight or nine win team entering the last week of 2021? The Rams aren't Holy Cross this season; otherwise, they were very good and a better team than a 6-4 record. All four of Colgate's wins are inside the PL, but the defense can't stay with Fordham.

 Holy Cross (8-2) at Bucknell (1-9), 1:00 pm: Holy Cross rolls into Lewisburg with five consecutive PL wins by an average margin of 27 points. Bucknell has lost its last three games by a combined 134-26, and Georgetown was the only opponent the Bison were even within three touchdowns in PL play.  With the loss, Bucknell will post its first winless season in PL play since 2005.

A Georgetown Football Milestone

This week's game against Lehigh marked a milestone in Georgetown: the 1000th varsity game.

Football was founded on the Hilltop in 1874 and played its first games against outside competition in 1881 and 1883, but these games are not recognized by the University, as it has set 1887 as the first season of varsity football. So why no recognition from the University for the impending 1000th game? It may be a typo. 

The game notes from Saturday's game with Holy Cross lists the win-loss records of all coaches since 1887, which totals to 521-448-32 (.539), which adds up to 1,001 games. However, the totals (as seen below) count a 2-1 record each for co-coaches John Murray and Bill Nash in 1964 and 1965 when only three games were played between them; thus, the total is overstated by three and the total number of games played entering the Fordham game was 998. 

In recognition of this 1000th game, here are some other milestones along the way:

Game #1: Nov. 2, 1887

Georgetown Field, Washington DC

Georgetown 46, Emerson Institute 6

Game #100: Oct. 24, 1903

League Park, Norfolk, VA

Georgetown 33, North Carolina 0

Game #200: Nov. 20, 1915

Georgetown Field, Washington DC

Georgetown 61, South Carolina 0

Game #300: Nov. 27, 1926

University of Detroit Stadium, Detroit, MI

Georgetown 19, Detroit 0

Game #400: Oct. 8, 1938

Griffith Stadium, Washington DC

Georgetown 33, Roanoke 6

Game #500: Nov. 9, 1968

Brookland Stadium, Washington, DC

Catholic 7, Georgetown 6

Game #600: Oct. 10, 1981

Kehoe Field, Washington, DC

Fordham 24, Georgetown 0

Game #700: Oct. 31, 1992

Cardinal Stadium, Washington, DC

Georgetown 19, Catholic 16

Game #800: Oct. 19, 2002

Fisher Field, Easton, PA

Lafayette 35, Georgetown 17

Game #900: Oct. 22, 2011

Multi-Sport Field, Washington, DC

Georgetown 40, Colgate 17

Week 9 Thoughts

 Two brief thoughts following Fordham's 41-20 win over Georgetown on Saturday:

 1. Progress? Not This Week. As a writer, I'm probably best known for basketball but when it comes for football, the emotions of watching game are much more visceral. When there's a win, it's a great feeling. When it's not, it hurts more with each passing year because it's yet another opportunity lost to establish this program where it needs to be. And something Georgetown has missed time and again.

 Did I expect Georgetown to win this game. No. Having seen Fordham games online this season, the Rams a superior team for a variety of reasons.  In the end, unless you're Lafayette or Bucknell, 63 scholarships always trumps no scholarships. But Georgetown had a series of plays which would not have changed the final outcome of the game, but would have been the kind of statements that, in week 10, players, coaches and fans should be seeing from a team, and didn't.

 -- With 5:46 to play in the first quarter, down 13-6, the Georgetown defense had one of its best stops of the season, holding the Rams at the one line of a 12 play drive. One play later, Georgetown fumbles the ball. One more play later, it's 20-7. Ballgame.

 -- With 1:04 to halftime, Fordham takes over after a particularly ineffective GU drive which consumed just 23 seconds of the quarter. The defense held as Fordham misses a field goal, but coming out of halftime, it allows a 45 yard pass to set up a score.  After the Hoyas respond with a six yard, 1:24 drive, a pair of defensive penalties sets up a 33 yard run for the score.

 -- Georgetown had two drives that entered the Fordham red zone in the third quarter. Total number of points? Zero.

 The team racked up 100 yards in penalties. This, more than anything, is inexcusable for the most veteran team Georgetown has ever put in a starting lineup in the modern era.  Coach Sgarlata avoided claiming that the team was "improving 1%" every game. Unfortunately, this team needs to improve much more than 1% every week because a 10% change doesn't win games in November.

 There are deep structural reasons why Georgetown doesn't make plans for football in December. But a team that does not win at home isn't going to be successful in any month. A winless home slate in 2021 matches three of the worst seasons in modern Hoya football: 2007 (1-10), 2009 (0-11) and 2017 (1-10). How does this change?

 2. The Future? Not Next Week. Neither the Washington Nationals  nor the Baltimore Orioles were making it to the playoffs this year; in fact, both finished in last place. But September wasn't merely playing out the spring, but making some call-ups and giving young players something that no practice schedule can provide: experience.

 This is the call-up time of the year in football. The season ends in two weeks and a full third of the lineup, including 17 of 22 starters, is gone next year. If you think 2021 was touch, how does 2022 look without Tomas, Saffold, Moultrie, Crayton, Portobanco, four of five starters on the O-line,  two of four starters on the D-line, the entire linebacking corps, Ahmad Wilson, Jonathan Honore, etc.?

 This is the time the staff should give consideration to sitting the seniors and getting as much time as possible for underclassmen to learn game-time experience. Instead, the same 17 seniors are on the starting lineup in this week's game notes. I get it--coaches and players want to win, but this team has some real holes to fill for 2022. Georgetown needs that elusive commodity of experience and since it is not a program that welcomes the junior college or the transfer portal, it's going to be very tough in 2022 for those that remain.

 The last two games are, at best, a coin-flip, and yes, 4-6 always beats 2-8. But the preparation for 2022 cannot start soon enough.

Fordham: When It Was A Rivalry

The 66th meeting Saturday between Georgetown and Fordham harkens back to the days of an old-fashioned football rivalry.

In its heyday in the 1920's, the two teams played before crowds of 30,000 at New York's Polo Grounds. Georgetown's 1965 home game with the Rams remains its on-campus attendance record (9,002 at Kehoe Field) while the 13,568 in attendance for Fordham's 1970 Homecoming game versus the Hoyas remains its modern attendance record as well.

Saturday is the 50th anniversary of one of the more entertaining games between the schools. 

"Georgetown's headhunting defense and booming offensive line exhausted and bowled over Fordham Saturday in a 30-9 homecoming victory before an exuberant crowd of 6,000," wrote the Washington Post following the game on November 6, 1971

A 25 year old Post reporter, Shelby Coffey III (later the editor of the Los Angeles Times and an executive at ABC News) called it as follows: "Like demolition experts  setting dynamite charges under a silo, the Hoyas took a while to crack their objective, but then they brought it all tumbling down."

Georgetown led 10-0 at halftime before second half touchdowns by RB Ralph Edwards and WR Vince Bogdanski turned the tide. Bogdanski's 18 yard reception also saw him collide with spectators who got a little too close to the end zone at Kehoe Field. 

The two teams have played as far back as 1890 and regularly since the mid-1990's. However, Fordham has won 22 of the last 25 in the series, with Georgetown's last home victory coming in 2011. Why?

Fordham spends more on football than any Patriot League school at $7.3 million per year - over $5 million more than GU. That's an advantage on the margin in coaching salaries and player development, but also in recruiting, where Fordham has advantages with admitting recruits Georgetown does not have. There's a plus with scheduling as well, allowing Fordham to play stronger non-conference opponents (including Nebraska to open this season) and use this as a building block for PL play. The Rams have won five straight heading into Saturday's game, averaging 49 points per game in that stretch.

The absence of regular basketball competition has also dampened this rivalry. Fordham and Georgetown played annually in basketball from 1950 through 1979 but since have played just one game since, in the 2007-08 season.

Fordham leads the overall football series 38-23-3. Here are the results between the teams since each school revived football in 1964:

1965: Fordham 34-28 (H)

1966: Georgetown, 27-13 (A)

1967: Fordham, 20-18 (H)

1968: Fordham, 31-6 (A)

1969: Georgetown, 14-7 (H)

1970: Fordham, 39-17 (A)

1971: Georgetown, 30-9 (H)

1972: Fordham, 14-8 (A)

1973: Fordham, 13-0 (H)

1974: Georgetown, 35-7 (A)

1975: Georgetown, 35-0 (H)

1977: Fordham, 40-0 (A)

1981: Fordham, 24-0 (H)

1982: Fordham, 23-9 (A)

1983: Georgetown, 12-6 (H)

1984: Fordham, 28-6 (A)

1985: Fordham, 56-0 (H)

1996: Fordham, 46-6 (A)

1997: Fordham, 42-0 (H)

1998: Fordham, 49-40 (A)

2000: Fordham, 17-10 (H)

2001: Fordham, 48-13 (A)

2002: Fordham, 41-10 (H)

2003: Fordham, 34-10 (A)

2004: Fordham, 36-6 (A)

2005: Georgetown, 24-21 (H)

2006: Fordham, 38-30 (A)

2007: Fordham, 38-31 (H)

2008: Fordham, 17-0 (A)

2009: Fordham, 41-14 (H)

2010: Fordham, 24-19 (A)

2011: Georgetown, 30-13 (H)

2012: Fordham, 38-31 (A)

2013: Fordham, 34-12 (H)

2014: Fordham, 52-7 (A)

2015: Fordham, 38-31 (H)

2016: Fordham, 17-14 (A)

2017: Fordham, 17-9 (H)

2018: Georgetown, 23-11 (A)

2019: Fordham, 30-27 (H)

Week 8 Thoughts

Photo courtesy Lafayette College

 Some thoughts following Lafayette's 24-23 win over Georgetown Saturday:

 1. Opportunities Lost: If you're new to Georgetown football, the next two analogies may be irrelevant, so apologies in advance.

The first quarter of Saturday's game harkened back to 1997, a game against Duquesne that may have been one of the greatest Georgetown home games of its era. In that game, the Hoyas opened the first quarter with a blocked punt for a touchdown, forced eight turnovers, and won the school's only recognized conference title in a 24-0 shutout of three time MAAC champion Duquesne.   It was one of two seminal games (the other being a convincing 1999 win at Holy Cross) that really got Georgetown thinking it could aspire to be something more than the MAAC, already taking on water by that time.

Fast forward to Saturday, where Georgetown pulled out all the stops--score a touchdown, run an on-sides kick. Force your opponent to a turnover on downs deep in its own territory. Outgain your opponent, at one point, by as much as 138 to 9. Fourteen minutes in Georgetown was up 17-0, the largest margin in a Patriot League game since it clobbered Lafayette 38-7 in the 2015 Cooper Field "re-naming" game.  Ten minutes later, it's 17-14. From then, it was a toss-up, because Lafayette had the kind of talent Georgetown wants to have, but which the PL admissions rules don't agree with.

The fourth quarter of Saturday's game harkened back to 2009, the dimming light of a winless season where Georgetown could simply not get anything right, none more so than in a 14-11 loss to Howard where Georgetown had a first and goal at the two yard line and settled for back to back quarterback sneaks on third and fourth down, netting a grand total of zero yards.

While not as dramatic, the finish to Saturday's game was redolent of a "just don't lose" strategy instead of making a winning decision. The Hoyas had just converted a fourth and six with a 13 yard pass to midfield. Two time outs and 3:15 to play...and yet Georgetown ran a total of six plays in the final 3:08, all to one player (Herman Moultrie). No wonder Lafayette shut it down.

To be fair, if Conor Hunt makes that field goal we'd call it a mastery of clock management. But a career long field goal on the final play of the game is no sure thing, and longer field goal attempts are, by nature, more of a lower elevation kick. Rob Spence's play calling was more favorable to a team that would run out the clock and either take a win or go into overtime.  The problem was that Georgetown wasn't going to overtime.

One more point about Lafayette. John Garrett isn't getting a statue at Fisher Stadium anytime soon and is probably a middle of the pack PL team. But he is embracing a youth movement in 2021 which will pay dividends down the road. The Leopards start a freshman quarterback, return their number 2 and 3 rushers, both its starting wide receivers, and its starting tight end. By contrast, Georgetown loses to graduation two of its top three rushers and its entire starting receiving corps. Which team will be better prepared heading into 2022?

2. When Fordham Was a Rivalry. Since 1984, Georgetown has played Fordham 25 times, winning just three. But Saturday harkens back to a day when there really was a rivalry between the schools.

On Nov. 6, 1971, Georgetown defeated Fordham 30-9 at on a beer-soaked Homecoming at Kehoe Field. "As good as the rest of the team may have looked, it was the defensive line's day as Georgetown's gridders blitzed Fordham's Rams in the Hoyas' first varsity homecoming game in 21 years last Saturday," wrote The HOYA.

 "The Fearsome Fivesome and Friends," Scotty Glacken's various defensive line combinations, did a job on the Rams that will be remembered as a major disaster to the Rose Hill mob for years to come. The Rams netted 30 ground yds. all day, but worse yet, their quarterback tandem of Desmond Lawe and Jim Hurley ended up eating the ball ten times as the overpowered Fordham offensive line couldn't stop the Hoya rush. 

Linemen Bill Brugger (voted the Homecoming Outstanding Defensive Player) and Dave McPhaden also got a rare chance to demonstrate their running ability as they ran back kicks for touchdowns. Even the fact that McPhaden's effort was called back did little to dampen the luster of the day for the Hoya line."

 The game was also known for some hijinks which would neither be anticipated by today's students nor appreciated by the University. 

Early in the fourth quarter, someone unplugged the Kehoe Field scoreboard for laughs. Later in the game, students tried to rush the field before the end of the game. 

Wrote The HOYA: "Some overeager rooters seized this occasion to dismantle the south goalpost, but possibly sparked by the threat of a forfeiture, Georgetown authorities and sundry other restored order; Scotty Glacken and his coaching, staff, stalwart Raymond "Pebbles" Medley and a covey of defensive backs including Leo McGill, Tim Graham and Jim Chesley quickly righted the posts and chased away the imbibers, preserving the day for the Hoyas."

 Expect neither this weekend.

3. D.C. Blues:  If you build it, they still aren't coming. Saturday's game drew an announced crowd of 2,437, with a healthy contingent from Lafayette and the inevitable erosion of student support. Students will stand three deep along the baseline of a soccer  game but they will walk nonchalantly past Cooper Field.

Whatever you think about how soccer is marketed versus the general local deemphasis of football as a distinctly Washington pastime, the calculus on Georgetown students is fairly linear: if you're winning, they support you. If you are not, they don't. It follows a local trend.

Football is 0-3 at home and is 5-13 over the last four full seasons. Gone are the days when students would commandeer a car on the weekend and drive up to see a road game....any road game Their entire experience of Georgetown football is five home games a year, with minimal promotion and scattered results. If GU doesn't do a better job to makes these games an event, the fans vote with their feet.

Football in DC has seen better days. Georgetown is 2-5 entering this weekend, Howard 2-6, Navy 2-6 and the Redskins are 2-6. Only Maryland (5-3) is above. 500, but must play Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan in the next three weeks.

Week 7 Thoughts

Some delayed thoughts (thanks to a computer crash) following Georgetown's 29-21 win over Bucknell Saturday.

1. Three Numbers, Revisited: Last week, we looked at three statistics which hovered over the Hoyas in midst of a four game losing streak. But against Bucknell, these numbers proved not only favorable, but pivotal for the Hoyas to earn the win.

The first figure was 33.8 is the average number of points allowed to date this season. It was unlikely Georgetown could surrender 33 points and win this game, but they held the Bison to just 21, second lowest this season and the fewest points in a PL game since these teams met in 2019.  It was also just the seventh game since 2012 that Georgetown won after an opponents scored 15 or more points.  For Georgetown to  have won, took a stronger offensive effort and a defensive stop or two, each of which was in evidence on Saturday.

The second number was 1.17, or Georgetown's yards per attempt on the ground to date in 2021, last in Division I. Instead, GU rushed for 225 yards, averaging 5.9 yards per carry.  Even of one removes Herman Moultrie's late game 34 yard run from the total, that's still a healthy number, because it opened up the offense and led GU to a 251 to 162 advantage in the air as well. Bucknell's defense isn't that good and Georgetown's next two opponents are considerably better, but a revitalized run game is good news for the Hoyas' ability to contend.

The third number was 1, as in one interception for the season to date and zero in the previous four games. The Hoyas picked off two interceptions versus the Bison, each coming at a critical time. One ended a Bucknell drive that reached the Georgetown 12 in the third quarter, while the second pick ended the Bison comeback hopes late in the game. For a defense that has had its struggles this season, Saturday was a step in the right direction.

And if you didn't catch this on the game recaps, some deserved recognition for punter Conor Hunt and the special teams: " Bucknell did not a start a single drive past its own 36, and its last four drives had an average starting position of its 18 yard line. Even with its three touchdown passes, BU did not have a single possession in the Georgetown red zone. Georgetown's last four drives had an average starting position of its 41 yard line, two of which netted the determinative scores of the game."

Well done all around.

2. Polar Power: Last week's marquee game in the PL was not at Bucknell nor at Fordham, but a minor-league baseball park in Worcester, where Holy Cross routed the Red Raiders of Colgate, 42-10 before a sellout of 9,508. The site was no accident.

(Photo credit; Worcester Telegram & Gazette)

While Holy Cross could certainly have hosted Colgate and brought in something close to 9,000, the game was a partnership with the City of Worcester and its new baseball stadium, Polar Park, home of the Red Sox' AAA franchise. For a city which once loyally supported the Crusaders in its major college days, the Worcester fan support has ebbed as Holy Cross migrated to the Patriot League. Fitton Field, seating 23,500, hasn't had a sellout since HC left for Division I-AA, when it hosted Boston College in 1986, below. 

The Eagles haven't come back, and at least until the numbers from last week, neither had the community.

The sight lines of a baseball stadium hosting football games are usually poor, whether you're in a minor league park or a Wrigley Field,  where the end zone is a tight fit against a outfield wall. But fans seemed to enjoy it and it's likely this will become an annual event in October, for a game named in honor the late Edward Bennett Williams, a 1941 Holy Cross grad and a 1944 Georgetown law grad. Perhaps  GU will figure into the rotation in future years. 

The game and the turnout also has opportunities for Georgetown as well. The University's effort in scheduling a larger venue for Harvard in 2017 was well meaning but the decrepit nature of RFK Stadium did not draw attendees. As I wrote on this site in 2017, "While traveling on the Metro to the game, a couple interrupted me and asked if I was going to the game. They were tourists from Toronto who had never seen a football game in person and were intrigued. The Blue Line car emptied out after Eastern Market and the couple asked why. Someone added that there are a lot of restaurants there. The couple politely got off at Potomac Avenue for a trip back to Eastern Market, and told me they might stop by the game after lunch. Whether they did, I cannot say, but there were people out there that Georgetown couldn't close the deal on."

The opportunity for Georgetown to take Holy Cross' lead and secure a future game at 20,000 seat Audi Field has been in speculation for years, but without an opponent that could really draw Washingtonians to go to a game.  No offense, but a Patriot League or Ivy League team isn't getting 10,000 or 15,000 people to a Georgetown game. But the amenities are there, at least in 2017, described as "31 luxury suites, 500,000 square feet of mixed use residential and commercial space, and parking for 447 bicycles for the sustainability-sensible crowd." 

"An aging RFK might have been too much for the upscale Washingtonians out there, but [Audi Field] will fit right in."

Neutral site games are not new to the PL (Fordham drew 21,000 at Yankee Stadium versus Holy Cross, for example) but they are new to Georgetown, especially in a city that hasn't supported them since the Griffith Stadium days, and maybe not even then.  Holy Cross' experiment for 2021 proved a success, and offers a healthy conversation at Georgetown for ways to grow the program.

3. Watch the CAA: When last we discussed this, there has been a lot of movement in the western half of Division I-A/FBS: Conference USA teams heading to the American Athletic Conference, others heading to the Sun Belt.  One that seems to be heading in that direction is James Madison, with potential changes to Eastern football.

"Our whole lives changed,” said Mickey Matthews, the former JMU coach who was at Coastal Carolina when that program upgraded to FBS. “And James Madison’s life will change immediately.

Matthews spoke to the Harisonburg News-Record about the secret in full view: James Madison is preparing to leave the Colonial Athletic Association and chase the dreams of big-time football.

"Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern and Georgia State already reside in the conference while Old Dominion and Marshall are expected leave Conference USA to join the Sun Belt at the same time as the Dukes," says the paper.

"So, there’s going to be some transition, there’s no doubt, because believe me, you’re not going to be playing Richmond anymore," Matthews said. "You’re going to be playing some good teams. I watched Coastal Carolina and Appalachian play the other night, and I thought, ‘Man, those programs have better players than James Madison right now.’ But as time goes along, you’re going to get your share of football players."

The most formidable conference in I-AA, the CAA hasn't had to add a team in quite a while. But do they, and if so, whom?

Monmouth is a willing suitor but they really don't fit the CAA blueprint--successful private schools to the south and a collection of state schools up north. Any changes at the seven team Patriot League or six team MEAC put those conferences in serious jeopardy of folding. But if you're Richmond, if you're Villanova, or William & Mary, you're now in the game of musical chairs. Go searching for a replacement team, or start looking yourself? Hunt, or be hunted?

As Big East basketball fans learned a decade ago, there's always collateral damage when teams move, even if it's not your team. The Patriot League may be among the slowest conferences to react, but they need to be paying attention. And so do their fans.

Week 6 Thoughts

 Some thoughts following Holy Cross' 48-14 win over Georgetown Saturday.

1. Three Numbers. If you never saw this game, it wouldn't have taken much to consider Georgetown the underdog, and a considerable one at that. Holy Cross entered as two-time Patriot League champs and are likely favorites for a winner-take-all meeting versus Fordham in early November. Georgetown is none of these and no one will mistake an early win at Delaware State for an early win at Connecticut.

But the numbers aren't just about Holy Cross' dominance but speak to some significant underperformance in the Hoyas this far this year.  It's not about Rob Sgarlata's "the one percent" or even what Sgarlata's predecessor used to call "fanatical effort". Here are three numbers that tell the tale of the 2021 season to date:

1. 33.8
2. 1.17
3. 1

Let's look at each of them.

First, 33.8 is the average number of points allowed this season, 96th among 123 I-AA/FCS teams this season. By itself, that's a daunting number and not a lot of winning programs can  give up as many points and be competitive. But as a comparison to recent Georgetown teams, it's a point of concern.

Here are the average points allowed over the last five seasons:

2019: 16.6

2018: 21.0

2017: 27.2

2016: 23.3

2015: 26.9

In fact, you have to go back to the 2007 season (1-10) for a comparable points per game like 2021. It's compounded by Georgetown's traditionally low scoring offense and, as we noted earlier in this series, the Rule of 15.

If you're giving up 33 a game, you need to be scoring 34, and the last Georgetown team to do that was in 1978.

The defense as a whole has been disappointing. We may see an improvement against Bucknell, if only because the Bison offense is fairly underwhelming on its own (8.5 points per game), but it doesn't address the issue: Georgetown can't be giving up this many points and win games.

1.17 is the number of yards per attempt on the ground this year. That's the fewest of any Division I school, FBS or FCS. Georgetown may not be a run-first offense by any means, but it's not a tenable figure when defenses can sag back in the secondary and let their lines clean up on the ground. 

This is not some indiscretion of youth. While the Holy Cross announce team was charitable in discussing that Georgetown was a very young team, that's not the case in the backfield. Three of Georgetown's four leading rushers are graduating in 2022, and another is a junior. Freshman Naieem Kearney may have a productive future but he certainly can't do it alone in 2022. This may be for a longer term discussion, but while Georgetown is a "young" team, its starting line up is not: ten of 11 offensive starters graduate in 2022, eight of 11 on defense.

Only one Georgetown rusher since 1996 has averaged six or more yards per carry, and not since 2003. The leading rusher in 2021 is at 2.2 yards, which at present is the lowest in the modern era.

Finally, the number 1. One, as in interceptions, as in none since the second quarter of the Delaware State game. Maybe it's not fair to compare this defense to the 2018 defense that combined for a remarkable 20 interceptions in 11 games. Or even 2019, with 12 INT's to its credit.  But one? Georgetown is one of five schools with that statistic, and for a defense which leads by example, it's an abrupt turn of events from the teams which preceded them.

Of these three cautionary numbers, points per game stands at the top. Given Georgetown's offense, the Hoyas aren't going to overwhelm anyone on offense, having scored more than 31 points just three times in the last ten years against PL opponents. Defense gives the Hoyas a chance, but if there 's no defense, there's no chance, run game or not. 

2. Dwindling Coverage. File this away for 2022 off season, but while ESPN+ makes watching the game easier, the lack of coverage overall continues to atrophy across the league.

I noticed that Holy Cross no longer broadcasts the game on radio, and by extension, online. Whether it was the late Bob Fouracre or a student group at WCHC, radio is a victim of streaming. As a student editor told me a few years ago, students don't listen to radio and even he was unaware Georgetown basketball was on it, and didn't know who Rich Chvotkin was.

Bucknell's Doug Birdsong now broadcasts the Bison on ESPN+, with his distinctive voice that could pass for Baylor's frenetic John Morris. The radio still lives in rural Pennsylvania, and there should be a place for it within college football. But the transistor radio of days gone by has become an iPhone. 

And when radio's gone, it's gone. The last Georgetown games on the radio date to the early 2000's. No one has picked up the mantle since, including WGTB, to whom radio is just one extended music set, devoid of news, sports, or comment. I could go on at length about the futility of WGTB as a lost opportunity in engagement within the community, but  here's one: this is WGTB's 75th anniversary, and it will pass without notice in 2021. QED.

3. FCS Conference Realignment: It's dog-eat-dog at the major college ranks this fall, with the SEC biting off two from the Big 12 and the Big 12 biting off three from the American Athletic Conference (AAC). This week, the AAC did its part by announcing it'll take six-six schools from Conference USA to show it means business. The league that once held the football likes of Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh as fthe pre-2013 Big East football league will now add football names such as Texas-San Antonio, Charlotte, and Florida Atlantic.

The food chain appears to be contained to FBS with one exception: James Madison. The Dukes have made no secret of seeking a status beyond the CAA as did their cross-commonwealth peer in Old Dominion once did.  JMU would prefer the Sun Belt, they of such schools as Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Arkansas State, but the Sun Belt may sit this round out. Would the remainder of Conference USA (Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, ODU, Western Kentucky, Southern Miss)  take a chance on James Madison?

Early signs are, as the magic eight-ball says, cloudy. But a future move by James Madison opens a seat in the CAA, and  with it, a question: what Eastern schools would be suitable candidates? Probably not NEC schools, probably not MEAC. A school at full scholarship football and an ability to play at a high-major level, at least as FCS is constructed. 

Georgetown? No. But one or two other PL schools fit that bill. Let's park this for now, but if the Dukes move up, watch to see who pays attention.