Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Week 4 Thoughts

 


Some thoughts following Brown's 26-14 win over Georgetown Saturday:

1. The Cook vs. The Baker: We can discuss specific plays and what-ifs, but Saturday's game was an example of the contrast of a head coach in basketball and a had coach in football. A basketball coach (think Ed Cooley) is a little like a short order cook: he can substitute ingredients on the fly and turn up the heat when it's required to get the meal just right. As last year made clear, a good cook can't make chicken salad out of.. less than that, but he can make changes in rapid fashion.

By contrast, a college football coach (think Rob Sgarlata) is more of a baker. The off-season and pre-season collected the ingredients and the season cooks it. He knows how far the ingredients will take him and whether the dough will rise or fall. He can't easily change ingredients on the fly: Savion Hart will not come off the bench and rush for 150 yards a game, for example, and Chris Martin is not going to lead the team in tackles. Sgarlata knows what he has, and what he does not.

Losses like Brown are discouraging not solely because of the opponent but that history suggests this is a course that Georgetown cannot easily self-correct. Since  2005, Georgetown went 1-4 after five games seven times and finished with just one additional  victory for the rest of the season in five of these.  A 2-3 mark after five games has been seen a net +1.67 wins thereafter, but a 3-+2 start builds an average of  +2.5 additional wins the remainder of the season. With two exceptions, most recently in 2018, Georgetown does not catch momentum in the second half of the season. What's in the oven comes out as expected.

Since 2014, Georgetown's cumulative record through September 30 is 19-23 .452). In the month of October, 10-26 (.277). In November, 3-21 (.125). We can't do much about November right now but Saturday's game is a window into how far this team can reach  past its track record of declining returns as the schedule picks up and the injuries mount.

2. The Ivy Experiment: I hope to speak more about this next week, but a provocative question: does Georgetown need to rethink scheduling Ivy League schools in the future?

With the exception of a 0-0 tie at Penn in 1937,  Georgetown had seen comparatively little of the Ivies after the 1920s. It had never scheduled Brown, Cornell, Harvard or Yale, met Dartmouth once, and was a combined 0-9-1 versus Columbia, Penn and Princeton.

In the 21 years since Georgetown upset Cornell on a windy October afternoon at Schoellkopf Field, the dreams of the Ninth Ivy have been fleeting.

In games versus Cornell and Columbia, the two lesser lights of the Ancient Eight over the last few decades, Georgetown is a combined 5-7. Against everyone else, 2-26, including a woeful 0-15 versus Harvard, Penn, and Yale. Yes, the argument has persisted since the Bob Benson days that these are the peer schools with which we compete, scholarship-free, the love of the game, the last amateurs, etc. 

What are they doing that Georgetown is not? 

Some of this may already have been answered. Saturday marks the end of the 10-year Lou Little Cup. Brown is the only publicly identified Ivy opponent going forward. Harvard signed deals with Pioneer teams like Stetson and St. Thomas for wins (Stetson obliged last week, 35-0).  So where does Georgetown go from here?

3. Around the PL:

Lehigh 35, Princeton 20: Some good signs on South Mountain, as the Engineers (3-1) won its first game over an Ivy League opponent in eight years.  Lehigh led  21-7 at the half and put the game away in the fourth quarter with a 34 yard TD run before 6,217 at Murray Goodman Stadium. This week,  Lehigh hosts Bucknell (2-2).

Bucknell 34, Marist 18:  The three week non-conference sojourn by the new look Red Foxes was another loss, this time in Lewisburg.  Ralph Rucker completed 21 of 27 passes for 272 yards and three touchdowns as Bucknell led 27-7 at halftime and was not seriously challenged in a home game before 2,474. Saturday's game with Lehigh could be an early test to see if the Bison can escape the second tier of PL play on Rucker's shoulders.

Columbia 31, Lafayette 20: A warning for Georgetown in this one, where the Lions, in their first game of the season, rung up 447 yards on the #19 ranked Leopards, for its first win over a ranked team since 2005 before 3,592 at Wien Stadium. Columbia quarterback Chase Goodwin was 16 of 19 for  180 yards, while the Lions averaged  5.5 yards per carry on the ground. For Lafayette, they will have a bye week and regroup.

Colgate  41, Cornell 24: As predicted, the Red Raiders have ended their regular September slumber and are making moves. Colgate scored on its first five possessions of the game and stopped the Big Red on two latte drives to seal the win before 2,984 at Andy Kerr Stadium. The Red Raiders (1-3) travel to Penn (0-1) this weekend.

Yale 38, Holy Cross 31: the Crusaders may be among the best 1-3 teams in the nation, losing another late battle, this time via a nine play drive in the final 3:30 that ended on a three yard touchdown run with 12 seconds remaining before a season high 15,113 at Fitton Field.  HC outgained the Elis 426-394 but Yale was 9-18 on third downs and owned a 3:30 advantage on time pf possession, which was just about the time of that last drive. The Crusaders' hope for a return to form must wait another week, however, as they travel to meet the Orangemen of Syracuse for a payday game on Saturday. The Crusaders have dropped 10 straight in what was once a more regular series, with its last win coming at Fitton Field  in 1958. In its last game in 2019, Syracuse won going away, 41-3.

Dartmouth 45, Fordham 13: Another rough week for the Rams, as they were  down 24-7 to the Indians by halftime and gave up 6.5 yards per carry en route to Dartmouth's game high 233 rushing yards and three touchdowns before 3,573 at Memorial Field in Hanover. Reserve Jack Capaldi was 23-43 for just 187 yards for Fordham, now 0-4 and traveling to Monmouth (2-2) in what should be a must-win opportunity.