Monday, October 21, 2024

Week 7 Thoughts

 


Some thoughts following Colgate's 38-28 win over Georgetown Saturday:

1. Follow The Trend: It was disappointing, but not altogether surprising in perhaps the most one-sided rivalry in FCS.. It's not about trickery or even the Colgate "hoodoo" (that's a reference to its old rivalry with Syracuse), but a consistent theme Georgetown has faced over the years. Excepting Davidson, the Hoyas' defense can struggle with teams that run the football.

In 2024, Georgetown is 3-0 when opponents rush under 40 times a game and 0-3 when they go over 40. In the prior three seasons, it's 1-12 when teams loads up on the run like this.  For a Colgate team with mixed results in the passing game is this season, it was a smart move and one which set the course for the second half. Colgate got a lead and Georgetown had to play from behind. More often than not, that's a winning formula for the Red Raiders, and not for the Hoyas.

Apologies to those who saw the Pre-Game Report page and asked "where's Michael Brescia, the scheduled starting QB?" Brescia was apparently injured but that didn't stop the media notes from selling this start, much as Georgetown's media notes keep listing Naieem Kearney starting at running back when he hasn't played in the last two games. If he maintains the starting role, Jake Stearney will have his hands full to maintain a ground game, given that Colgate finishes the season with four road games in its next five against some solid rushing defense teams. 

Offensively, the Hoyas did not play poorly: 415 total yards, 5-11 on third down, 3-4 in the red zone. Danny Lauter's two interceptions could have been impactful had they succeeded, but neither were the cause for the loss. Simply put, very few teams can give up 24 points in a half and that's what Georgetown did. It's a cautionary note as they Bucknell, as the Bison got behind 24-0 in the first half of its game with Cornell and never contended thereafter.

First half or second half, Georgetown has traditionally allowed Colgate a lot of points. Over the past 20 seasons the Red Raiders average  32.0 points per game against the Hoyas, most of any PL opponent. This marks the fourth consecutive season GU has lost by 10 points to Colgate, but four losses nonetheless.

2. The Road Ahead: All that said, if someone told you in August (it wasn't me) that Georgetown would hit the home stretch of its schedule at 4-3 without major injuries, many fans would look upon that with no small amount of hope. And heading down the stretch, that's where the Hoyas are.

Four games remain over five weeks, there at home and one at Fordham where the Rams are enduring a winless season, though they can't be taken for granted. Five scenarios are on the table:

Win four, and Georgetown wins its first Patriot League title. Barring a crazy run by Colgate on the road, the Hoyas would own the tiebreaker on every other teams and earn a NCAA playoff invitation. Historic.

Win three, and Georgetown is in the mix for a PL co-championship. The league is unlikely to see an at-large invitation to the playoffs, but 7-4 would be an extraordinary accomplishment.

Win two, and Georgetown is out of the PL race but earns a long-awaited winning season, something it has done once in the last quarter century.

Win one, and it's another frustrating 5-6 finish.

Win none, and  that's even more frustrating.

Three opportunities at home are a rare one this late in the season. No one confuses Cooper Field with Sanford Stadium, but these are three games where the team won't be on a bus to Lewisburg, to Bethlehem, or to Worcester. 

It is, again, an opportunity. Let's start that journey on Saturday

3. Around The PL:

Lafayette 35, Sacred Heart 17: The Leopards returned to form in this non-conference game, rushing 56 times for 297 yards (after just 69 yards against Georgetown the week before) and thoroughly dominating the Pioneers. A key PL game with Holy Cross Saturday is likely to determine the front runner for the PL crown thereafter.

Harvard 35, Holy Cross 34: This one could fill up a couple of pages--with three touchdowns in the final 1:44, the Crusaders battled back from 27-14 down to tie the score with no time remaining, only to fall short on a two point conversion. Writes the Harvard Crimson of the late game heroics:

"Holy Cross refused to give up, quickly making its way down the field. As Holy Cross receiver Byron Shipman jumped up in the air and collected a throw from Pesansky in the end zone, shock initially filled the air in Harvard Stadium. However, a massive offensive pass interference call reversed the touchdown and left little opportunity for Holy Cross to tie the game. 

One play later, Pesansky threw up the ball for another Hail Mary attempt and watched as both teams juggled it. The pass was initially ruled incomplete but officials sought a replay review.

Harvard fans looked on anxiously as the decision came. The ruling on the field stood, but one second was put back on the game clock — just enough for one more Hail Mary attempt.  On his third try, Pesansky finally struck gold as the Crusaders found the end zone as the clock expired. But [Harvard] ensured that Holy Cross’ crusade ended one point short."

A mere 3-5, Holy Cross is still the team to beat in the PL, and its game Saturday will be memorable.

Yale 38, Lehigh 23: It's been a productive year for Ivy League teams versus the Patriot League, and was the case in this one, as the Bulldogs picked up two touchdowns in the final 3:07 of the first half and never looked back. Lehigh actually outgained Yale in this one but four turnovers proved monumental. At 3-3, the Engineers host Fordham this Saturday.

Cornell 34, Bucknell 21: An upset of sorts in this one, where the Bison went to backup quarterback Michael Hardyway following an injury to Ralph Rucker the week prior. Three fumbles proved Bucknell's undoing, as the Big Red led 27-7 in the second quarter and never looked back.