Sunday, September 23, 2018

Week 4 Thoughts

Some thoughts following Columbia's 23-15 win over Georgetown Saturday.

1. Then and Now. Consider this: on September 24, 2016, leading by a comfortable 17-0 at halftime versus Columbia on Homecoming Day at Cooper Field,  hung on to a 17-14 win for its third straight victory to open the 2016 season.

 Columbia had lost its fifth straight game, and left that game with a combined record of 2-30 over its last 32 games.

Two years later, Columbia led 23-0 versus Georgetown on Homecoming Day at Cooper Field, and hung on to a 23-15 win Saturday for its second straight to open the 2016 season.

Since that 2016 loss to Georgetown, the Lions are 13-7 and winners of 10 of its last 12. Over its last 23 games since that game, Georgetown is 2-21.

There's no one explanation why Columbia has soared and Georgetown has soured. Al Bagnoli has a lot to do with the Lions' resurgence, as well as a commitment by that school to end the stench of decades of bad football on Baker Field.

"We are all people who aspire to do the very best," said Columbia president Lee Bollinger when Bagnoli was hired. "We have done that throughout the athletics program, and we're going to do it in football," he said.

More than aspiring, Columbia is delivering. Georgetown aspires, too, of course. But 2 and 21 is not delivering.

2. Play of The Game:  From Jake Novak's Columbia football blog, "Roar, Lion Roar":

"With 2:15 left in the 3rd quarter and Columbia now ahead 13-0, PK Chris Alleyne was called on to kick a 46-yard FG when a Lion drive fizzled at Georgetown 28. Alleyne nailed the kick to keep his perfect season going and gave Columbia a crucial two-score lead." he wrote.

"On the ensuing Hoya possession, DE Daniel DeLorenzi strip sacked Johnson and Lion LB Michael Murphy recovered the ball at the GU 29. Three plays later and with Columbia facing a 3rd and 18 at the Hoya 37, Smith made a beautiful run after the catch for a crucial 25-yard gain to the Georgetown 12 with about 14 minutes left in the game. Three plays later, Columbia was up 23-0 and seemingly in the clear."

That Georgetown could mount a 15 point comeback in the fourth quarter is commendable, but how different would the final minute have been if they were down 16-15 instead of 23-15?  Johnson's fumble and the five play drive to open the fourth provided Columbia an unlikely but invaluable cushion to ride out of town with the win.  

Georgetown's eight fumbles in four games ranks them dead last in the subdivision for  fumbles allowed after week four. Brown has not allowed a fumble all season.


3. Rush Week: Want one reason why Georgetown is such a poor performer in games like this? It can't run the ball. Saturday's game saw the Hoyas carry 26 times for 25 yards against a Columbia rushing defense ranked fourth in the subdivision. Georgetown has dropped to 118th of 124 schools in rushing;  a small consolation, perhaps, that three Patriot League schools join Georgetown in the bottom ten, another sign how poor this conference is in 2018, with a combined out of conference mark of 5-20 through week 4.

A slight ray of hope lies across the field at Brown Stadium this week. The Bears have struggled to contain the run against better competition--it allowed 420 yards to  against Cal Poly and 237 yards versus Harvard. 

Can Georgetown resuscitate the run? If so, it needs a stronger effort out of its offensive line, one which can move the line of scrimmage and something it has not shown it can consistently do. Georgetown's longest run from scrimmage Saturday was six yards. And while it might seem like a tall order to a school who hasn't had a serious RB threat since Kim Sarin, Georgetown has to work the run game even if it won't succeed. Short of repositioning Khristian Tate to the backfield, it has to get more out of Jay Tolliver and Jackson Saffold if only to keep the Brown defenses honest. Harvard has three rushes of 20 yards or more on the brown line, including runs of 43 and 50 yards. 

4. Next Men Up: A shoulder injury to Michael Dereus in the Columbia game is bad news for a passing offense which has yet to reach expectations. Branden Williams figures to get additional defensive scrutiny Saturday following his 1221 yards versus the Lions,  but what can be done by the receiving corps?

Georgetown has five excellent wide receivers in its rotation (Williams, Edwards, Jackson, Tomas, and Springs), with Isaac Schley at tight end. It's tempting to ditch the run and let it all air out, but Johnson does not have the time in the backfield to do that because of the offensive line. If he does, however, let it fly...and not for five yards, either.

5. A Long Way from Georgetown: Buried in the online agate type of the week, a remarkable finish in Norfolk, where Old Dominion not only got #18 Virginia Tech to play at Foreman Field, they beat the Hokies 49-35. It was not only the biggest win in that school's nine year football history, but worlds away from 2009, when the biggest game on its schedule was a Oct. 31 game versus Georgetown, won by the Monarchs 31-10 before 19,782, what remains the largest crowd to see the Hoyas play in the modern era.

Blake LaRussa, from Bishop Sullivan HS in the Tidewater, threw for 495 yards in the win.


How much have these programs diverted in the intervening years...

So why did the Gobblers play in a 20,000 seat stadium in Norfolk? Former coach Frank Beamer once said that "If we have an opportunity to play schools within the state, we’re going to do that...That program has great potential. Old Dominion is located in a good market, and the high school football there is outstanding. They’ve got a chance to recruit very good players there."

“What coach Beamer did told people in the ACC it was OK to schedule us,” said ODU athletic director Wood Selig. “It did so much to help us transition our program.”

The ODU-Virginia Tech series will continue from 2022  through 2031, with home and away games throughout. ODU will be tearing down its 1930's era stadium after the 2018 season for a full rebuild by the 2019 season, and you can bet the west side won't be a pile of sand for the home opener.

Some clips from Twitter, which just goes to show what football can do bring a campus together.








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Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Week 3 Thoughts


Some thoughts following Dartmouth's 41-0 win over Georgetown Saturday.

1. No Silver Lining. This was, from the first play right to the end, a poor effort and performance. If this was in Washington, the half-crowd at Cooper Field would have deserted the place. Missed tackles, missed assignments and a general lack of progress should be of concern from the staff right on down.

In some respects, this harkens back to last year's stuffing at the hands of Harvard, with the only difference in the scoring between an errant snap on a punt that accounted for points for Georgetown where none such existed in Hanover. Harvard was, and we can agree on this, a much more dominant foe that day, and yet, while Dartmouth was certainly favored in this one, it was a 6-0 deficit with 3:00 to go by halftime. Thinks slowly but decidedly fell apart and while the defense couldn't save the day, they weren't prepared to avoid it, either.

Offensively, lots of questions. The offensive line makes it impossible to tell if the Rob Spence play calling will be able to leverage some of the better receivers Georgetown has had in a decade, or if the coaching touch he developed at Clemson is all gone at this point. Without a running game, something Georgetown has  struggled with for much of the last 15 years, opponents can flood the secondary and dare Georgetown to do something, while its front line given Gunther Johnson precious little time to check off and find receivers. Johnson was effective against Marist because he had time.  Johnson didn't have it against Dartmouth, and doesn't figure to have it Saturday with Columbia.

2. Fewer Ivies: For the past four seasons, Georgetown has been one of two PL schools to enjoy a "maximum green" of sorts on its schedule; namely, the maximum of three games against the Ivy green schools per their ten game schedules. It what Georgetown long sought for its program, and even the losses are looked upon secondarily to be able to tell recruits, parents, and fans that "we play the Ivy League".  (The other PL schools can talk about BC, Syracuse and the Academies, but that's another topic.)

A look at future Ivy schedules, however, shows that the maximum green may be dimming or Georgetown.  Just two Ivy games, road games with Columbia and Cornell, have been announced in 2019, one in 2020, and one in 2021. Of these, only one is a home game--Columbia in 2020.

Will more games follow? Probably, but the Ivies are diversifying its schedules beyond the patriot league and while they hold no particular animus to Georgetown, games like Saturday do not promote the idea that playing Georgetown is a good game for their  schedule. Some of these fan bases look upon Georgetown the way GU football looks upon Davidson.

Here's the Georgetown year by year count versus the Ivy League:

2005: 0-2 vs. Ivy, 4-5 all others

2006: 0-2 vs. Ivy, 2-7 all others

2007: 0-3 vs. Ivy, 1-7 all others

2008: 0-2 vs. Ivy, 2-6 all others

2009: 0-1 vs. Ivy, 0-10 all others

2010: 0-1 vs. Ivy, 4-6 all others

2011: 0-1 vs. Ivy, 8-2 all others

2012: 1-2 vs. Ivy,  4-4 all others

2013: 0-2 vs. Ivy, 2-7 all others

2014:  1-1 vs. Ivy, 2-7 all others

2015: 1-2 vs. Ivy,  3-5 all others

2016: 1-2 vs. Ivy,  2-6 all others

2017: 0-3 vs. Ivy, 1-8 all others
Total: 4-25 vs. Ivy, 35-80 all others

Davidson is a cautionary tale for Georgetown  in many ways, but the schedule is one of them. The Wildcats have not won a non-conference game  against a Division I opponent since 2005 (against Georgetown) and, facing a 9-57 record since 2012, have built its 2018 non-conference schedule solely against Division III teams. This weekend, Davidson put up 91 points on winless Guilford College.

Georgetown needs wins, but not cheap ones.

3. " A Revolution"? Were you at Sunday's Redskins-Colts game,  with two fan bases close enough where a sellout was wholly expected?

In fact, the attendance was so poor, Redskins management abandoned one of the biggest fibs in sports - the Redskins had consecutive home sellouts since 1967-- and reported attendance of just 57,013 in the 82,000 seat House that Jack Kent Cooke Built.




That's 30,000 empty seats, and it may not be the end of it.

"This is a big deal locally here in Washington, D.C.,” said Tony Kornheiser. “They couldn’t announce [a sellout] because there were 30,000 empty seats. The top deck [Sunday] looked like the Miami Marlins' games. It was awful."

"For 50 years, they owned Washington, D.C. There’s a combination of a bad team, a dull team, a terrible in-game experience, a sense that you’re being gouged and unresponsive management. And Mike, this is beginning to feel like the beginning of a revolution."

And a lesson for Georgetown. As Cooper Field is more and more de minimis, the absence of a game time atmosphere and a reason for Georgetown's Generation Z to commit three hours to a football game and not to Spotify or Snapchat is even less relevant.

Say what you will about the fact that SEC or Big 10 schools are a different culture than blue-state DC, their games are a singular in-game experience, from the tailgates to the marching bands to those 1950-'s era pom-poms that every coed seems to wave in unison. These are the proverbial ties that bind.



They get it. Does Georgetown?

What kind of game day experience at Cooper Field will bring people not just to say hello to friends, but hello to the third quarter?

The 2018 home schedule is a write-off. How do we get them back in 2019?

To be continued.

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Sunday, September 9, 2018

Week 2 Thoughts


Some thoughts following Campbell's 13-8 win over Georgetown Saturday:

1. His Name Was Rocky Reid: This loss wasn't about the rain, wasn't about missed field goals, wasn't even about the all too predictable fourth quarter turnovers that bite Georgetown as much as anyone.  This loss was about Campbell running back Rocky Reid; namely, they have a player like Reid and Georgetown does not.

Most, OK, all Georgetown fans did not have a clue who Rocky Reid was and most still don't... unless he was some 6-7 forward from a fly-by-night prep school with his own YouTube Channel.  Rocky Reid is a 6-0 230 lb. running back from Concord, NC who tore apart his school's rushing records with 7,700 rushing yards and 90 touchdowns, but was still rated no more than a three star recruit.  per the Campbell media notes, "carried the ball 300 times for 2,734 yards and 38 touchdowns as a senior." If you're doing the match , that's a 9.1 yard average.  Attracting some initial interest from Louisville and West Virginia, he committed closer to home at Wake Forest in 2014, and therein began a pattern all to familiar to major college football.

Reid could have played as a freshman, but an ankle injury led to a redshirt for the 2015 season.  In 2017, he rushed  16 times for 47 yards against Delaware in week three of the season but only six carries for seven yards the remainder of the season.

Rocky saw the writing on the wall. Wrote a columnist at SB Nation:

"Reid could not break out in 2016, as Wake’s duo of Cade Carney and Matt Colburn carried the load, and both were underclassmen. The staff is also very high on Arkeem Byrd, who redshirted this year and should make a strong impact in 2017, which makes it difficult to see Reid getting significant playing time in 2017."

Staying close to home, he signed up for Campbell, which was giving out scholarships for the first time in 2017, but it came with a catch: because the  Camels were still in the Pioneer in 2017, it had to redshirt all its scholarship adds, so Reid sat a second time and effectively lost a year of eligibility.

Reid made his debut in the Camel's walkover with Chowan, rushing 14 times for 59 yards. But with the Camels' offense in first gear following a 6-3 halftime score, coach Mike Minter let Reid loose and he simply wore down the Georgetown defense in the second.

Reid carried 29 times for 115 yards, much of it in the second half. (By contrast, no Georgetown player has rushed as many times in a game the last 13 seasons.) Here's the play by on Campbell's last scoring drive.

Campbell took over at 10-6 with 13:42 to play.
1st and 10: Reid for three.
2nd and 7: Reid for seven, first down.
1st and 10: Reid for three.
2nd and 7: QB Daniel Smith for 11, first down.
1st and 10: Reid for five.
2nd and 5: Reid for two.
3rd and 3: Reid for six, first down.
1st and 10: Reid for five.
2nd and 5: Reid for three.
3rd and 3: Reid, no gain.
4th and 2: Field goal at 7:06.

Nine of ten carries by Reid ground out 36 yards but more importantly, 6:36 off the clock. It's what running backs do, except at Georgetown.

Since the start of the 2016 season, Georgetown as a team has rushed for 100 or more yards just four times: 148 yards versus Davidson in the 2016 opener (won), 150 yards against Marist the next week (won), 118 versus Harvard in 2016 (lost), and 135 yards against Bucknell in 2017 (loss).  

Two and two? Not bad.  And in games where Georgetown has rushed for 100 or fewer yards since the 2016 season, the record is 3-17. One would presume, therefore, that a power running back would have been a priority for the Hoyas in 2018 given the absence of  Alex Valles and Isaac Ellsworth to graduation, and Christian Bermudez's pass on his senior season.

Georgetown only recruited one RB in a class of nearly 30:  Herman Moultrie III, who, at 185 lbs. (45 lbs. lighter than Reid) rushed two carries for one yard Saturday.  And while he's three years younger than Rocky Reid, Moultrie fits the pattern of the undersized, underutilized running back approach that has  led Georgetown to the bottom of the rushing statistics for years.  With Carl Thomas' injury, GU is down to essentially three RB's--by contrast, Campbell, by no means a dominant team, carries seven. And Dartmouth, who awaits the Hoyas next week, carries nine.

I have no idea if Georgetown ever recruited Rocky Reid  - we do not know his grades, his interest in leaving the state, or just that transfers rarely make an impact at Georgetown, assuming they get on the team (e.g., Jon Coppens). In any case, Campbell's game was yet another example, that depth and recruiting weighs heavily on this program, one where the defense keeps the team close, the special teams gives them hope, but the offense does neither. Georgetown must rely on outcomes where Gunther Johnson can get a break, as was the case with Marist.

But there are no more Marists on the schedule, and Dartmouth knows that there are no Rocky Reids in the Georgetown backfield.

2. Around the Patriot League: Well, it wasn't fun.

Holy Cross visited Boston College for the first time in 32 years en route to a 62-14 walkover, one so convincing that the Boston Globe called  the Crusaders "a combination punching bag and sparring partner" for the homestanding Eagles. BC running back A.J. Dillon gained 149 yards on his first six carries and sat the remainder of the game. BC led 28-0 and brought in reserves as early as the second quarter.

Fordham was clocked at Richmond, 52-7, rushing for a net -3 yards and being outgained 585-188.

William & Mary defeated Bucknell, 14-7. Per the post-game notes, the Tribe is 6-0 all-time vs. Bucknell and 25-9 against the PL as a whole.

Lafayette was no match for Delaware, 37-0, as the Blue Hens held the Leopards to -11 yards rushing en route to a 414-118 edge in total yards.

It wasn't any better down the road, where Lehigh dropped to 0-2 in a 31-9 loss to Villanova before just 5,100 at Murray Goodman Stadium. Of immediate concern: RB Dom Bragalone was knocked out of the game. Assuming he is cleared for next week, the Engineers now travel to Navy.

The lone PL win was Colgate over New Hampshire, 10-3. The Red Raiders traditionally start slow, so its start has to be a good sign for Colgate this fall amidst a resolutely poor week for the league.

What hath scholarships wrought? Better opponents, but not better results.

3. Around The Ivy League: It's week three for the rest of college football but week one for the Ivies, with Dartmouth hosting Georgetown in the final game of a two game series. Georgetown is not on any future schedules for the Indians through at least 2023. Dartmouth was picked sixth in the eight team pre-season poll but Ivy teams don't ever seem to be concerned over Georgetown anymore. Since 2005, Georgetown is a combined 4-24 versus the Ancient Eight.

4. Announced Attendance: Saturday's attendance at Cooper Field, less any seating whatsoever on the west side, was announced at 1,837.

No further comment required.



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Monday, September 3, 2018

Week 1 Thoughts

Some thoughts (and grades) following Georgetown's 39-14 win over Marist Saturday:

1. The A's: This is one of those games where knowing your strengths (and your opponent's weaknesses) paid off in a big way. Marist didn't have the depth to stay with Georgetown and it showed. And unlike some years where Georgetown sunk into the mud playing the game Marist wanted, getting Gunther Johnson time to find his receivers opened this game up in a big way.

Defensively,  Georgetown did all the right things, especially in holding Juston Christian, Marist's top receiver and arguably its best offensive weapon, to just one catch for eight yards.

Gunther Johnson's 369 yards is a career best and likely a season high. Defenses will adjust to the GU game plan, something Marist was conspicuous in not doing, and limit his ability to find receivers with ease.  The offensive line did a great job of giving Johnson time to find receivers and best of all, kept him healthy.

Finally, a hat-tip for the early two point conversion. Too many times, these come at the wrong time for Georgetown and it opens the door back up, but 11-0 closed that door early and the third quarter points put the game away...and that's not a phrase that Georgetown fans hear a lot these days.

2. The B's: Georgetown's rushing defense, holding Marist to 61 yards on 30 attempts. Better yet, holding the homestanding Red Foxes under 25 minutes in time of possession and 4 of 14 on third down.

3. The C's: Georgetown's rushing game isn't very good, and there will be weeks where it will be even less than that, but it did what it needed to do Saturday after losing Carl Thomas in the second series. Thomas' availability won't be reported by Georgetown so we'll have wait until Saturday to see when or if he returns.

Two fumbles, one on the verge of a Georgetown score, and one which led to an easy Marist score, need some attention. Neither were vital to the outcome of the game but each was preventable and coachable.

4. The D's: Special teams. Two missed field goals and a blocked punt is clearly not the expectations placed on Brad Hurst as a team leader. He can do better, and must do so.

5. The F's. None.  Breaking a 10 game losing streak was a team effort, and the team reflected that.

Future Schedules: Georgetown hasn't said much...OK, nothing about future schedules, but other Patriot League teams are. One of the attractive benefits of I-AA/FCS scholarship football is early September paychecks from I-A schools looking for the easy win. Such will be the case Saturday when Holy Cross heads east across the Mass Pike to play its old rivals at Boston College. Granted, no one on either team was alive the last time these two met, but BC will et its win and the HC fans can enjoy memories of a better time.

But i'm sure no one at Holy Cross would rather be playing Marist this week.

Here are the future schedules of major college opponents announced for other PL teams.

Bucknell:
2019: Temple
2020: Army
2021: Army

Colgate:
2019: Air Force
2022: Army

Fordham:
2019: Ball St.
2020: Hawaii
2021: Florida Atlantic
2022: Ohio

Holy Cross:
2019: Navy, Syracuse
2020: Boston College
2021: Connecticut

Lafayette:
2020: Navy

Lehigh:
Not announced

There are two responses to this list, either "How are they ever going to compete?" but maybe a better one is "What does this say about what kind of teams they'll have when they compete versus Georgetown?

We'll always have Marist, I suppose.












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