Week 4 Thoughts

 Some thoughts following Georgetown's 35-24 loss to Columbia on Saturday:

1. Depth. I'll admit I was very disappointed following the Harvard loss for the beat down that the Crimson inflicted, a product of better talent and better coaching. That same fervor was not found in the loss to Columbia. Georgetown's problems entering PL play are much the same as they have always been.

Georgetown remains the singular "one-off" in Division I-AA/FCS because of its inability to recruit the same way 108 other FCS schools do, hampered further by the Patriot League's irrational reliance on SAT scores to reflect "smart" athletes. But even this approach is tested by attrition. The game one injuries of Owen Kessler and Quincy Chinwuko have really hurt the defensive depth of this team. In 2018, the Hoyas' run defense held opponents to 103 yards a game on the ground, but by the first three games of 2021 that figure is now 232.7 yards a game, ranking Georgetown 115th of 123 schools.  

While the experience is there on the starting lineup, the Hoyas cannot control the line. Columbia's ability to get penetration on first down (and an average of 5.5 yards per carry) afforded it a lot more opportunity to control the clock as it did on the consequential fourth down drive. That's a point of concern entering Saturday's game, where Colgate   ranks eighth nationally in average yards per carry at 4.02. The Red Raiders rushed 44 times last weekend versus Lehigh for an average of 6.4 yards a carry and was 5-5 in the red zone. 

Colgate was outscored 102-10 in its first three games (Boston College, Stony Brook, William & Mary) but its 30-3 win over Lehigh may have turned a corner. If they stay on the ground, the Georgetown line has a lot of heat coming their way, much of that a measure of depth and lack of experience. 

Depth is again evident across the line in a Georgetown rushing game that is really not producing. The Hoyas' 1.6 yards per carry is 122nd of 123 schools by average and by yards per game. Colgate's numbers are skewed by BC and William & Mary, but they held Lehigh to 55 yards on 26 carries and that won't be enough Saturday.

Far, far removed from Georgetown, think of this example--why is Alabama so good? Look at the depth. The Crimson Tide can lose Jaylen Waddle, Patrick Surtain, DeVonta Smith, Mac Jones, Alex Leatherwood, Najee Harris (all in the first 20 picks of the 2021 NFL first round) and it's next man up, and the Tide still rolls. 

Coach Sgarlata likes to say "win, or learn". Without depth, there's a lot to learn.

2. A Great Debut. The Patriot League chose not to award QB Pierce Holley its offensive player of the week, and they missed on this one. One would be hard pressed at any level to find an example of a quarterback in his first collegiate start throwing for 368 yards.

Holley was ably assisted by a command performance from senior Cameron Crayton, whose 190 yards receiving has been topped by only four other men in school history. No recency bias here - this was an outstanding effort and probably the most impactful wide receiver output since Luke McArdle's 190 yards receiving and 182 yards punt return yardage against Cornell in 2003. 

For its part, Columbia had no film on Holley and probably didn't even practice with him in mind, as Tyler Knoop finished the Harvard game. Colgate has the game film and I expect them to be more aggressive on Holley, especially as he rolls out, than the Lions were in that game.

How long Holley stays in the lineup is unknown outside McDonough Gym. The extent of Joe Brunell's ankle injury is, like most things Georgetown, undisclosed. As  junior, Holley made a statement with the effort in the Columbia game, and should be a point of emphasis to see if he can maintain an improved passing game Saturday versus Colgate,  especially if the ground game flatlines.

3. Nobody's Coming  Home: What's the saying, "don't do anything that you wouldn't feel comfortable reading about in the newspaper the next day? Such was Georgetown's "abundance of caution" mantra in canceling Homecoming this year, despite a COVID-19 positivity rate of 0.2 percent in last week's testing protocols.

It's one of the few schools to take this approach. One sees the large crowds in college football elsewhere without any widespread infections that have follow, but GU has been erring on the side of canceling visible events outside the student body - (Reunion, graduate school events, Alumni Association weekends, etc.) but still maintaining student centered events like New Student Orientation.

It's not clear how many would have shown up anyway given the East Coast's more COVID-averse gathering than its western and southern neighbors--even Howard is canceling its Yardfest that often outdraws the football game itself. Homecoming at Big Ten and SEC schools continue unabated.

And while this decision was made months ago, an unusual confluence with another health event supports the idea that this may not be  the weekend to be on campus.

"More than one hundred students, faculty and staff on Georgetown University’s campus have reported nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and stomach cramps,  all symptoms that could be consistent with norovirus, officials said Monday, " read the Sept. 27 Washington Post. "University leaders first reported the gastrointestinal illness Sept. 21, after about 12 students on the main campus in Northwest Washington reported severe stomach pains, vomiting and diarrhea. Days later, that number grew to 90 and “fewer than 15” people had been transported to emergency rooms, officials said. As of Monday, 130 students and employees had reported some combination of symptoms."

The last outbreak of norovirus (formerly called "food poisoning") took place 13 years ago this week and forced the  cancellation of the Colgate-Georgetown game. No such prognosis this time around, but the presence of thousands of recent grads in close quarters during Homecoming would have been a risk factor to spread norovirus and some nasty symptoms, among them the aforementioned vomiting and diarrhea.

A safer Homecoming in 2022 awaits.

4. This Week In The Patriot League: The league went 3-3 last week an are now 6-18 in non-conference play to date. Games include the following, all of which may be found on ESPN+.

Yale (1-1) at Lehigh (0-4), 12 noon

Colgate (1-3) at Georgetown (1-2), 12:30

Harvard (2-0) at Holy Cross (3-1), 1:30

Cornell (0-2) at Bucknell (0-3), 3:30

Fordham (1-3) at Lafayette (1-3), 3:30

Week 3 Thoughts

Some thoughts following Georgetown's 44-9 loss to Harvard Saturday:

1. Unpopular Opinion, But...Why are we playing Harvard?

Maybe the question is not exactly why, but why still. Yes, I'm familiar with the obvious answers (Ivy League school, prestige, it's in the fight song, etc.), but why still?

In five games, this has not been a fair fight. Harvard has outscored Georgetown 195 to 31, and the game is even more pronounced in halftime when the Crimson go into cruise control: in five first halves, the difference is 136-21.

These mismatches (including the last two by a combined 85-11) are not so much a reflection of Georgetown as it is that Harvard recruits at a much higher level of talent and the results are on the field. In 2021 there are six former Harvard players in the NFL--the other seven Ivy schools combined for just seven. That extra spring in the step of a Aidan Borguet or Aaron Shampklin is part of a Harvard recruiting system that if doesn't put the other Ivies to shame, at least it gives them pause. It's the only Ivy program that can make a credible offer that four years for the Crimson could offer pro opportunities in addition to its education. It's also the Ivy that can offer a recruit practically a free ride to nearly every recruit.

Yes, Harvard traditionally starts off its season strong. The Crimson are an astounding 120-45-2 in season openers. But a slower, less offensively minded Georgetown team is tailor-made for Harvard to get up early and run away. A 13-9 score midway in the first quarter was hopeful, but as soon as Harvard scored on its next two possession, the die was cast.

Yes, playing Harvard in week 3 is more appropriate than, say, a 69-0 win over Catholic. But 2021 Georgetown isn't competitive with the style of play Harvard offers, any more than 2021 Georgetown could stay within range of an Army team that would run the triple option for 45 minutes a game. It's just not a game Georgetown is competitively suited for, and that speaks to the regular disparity in the scores.  The Hoyas are no closer to staying with the Crimson as they were in 2014, when they lost 34-3 at the former Multi Sport Field.

Yes, Georgetown will still return Tim Murphy's phone calls because it's Harvard. For Tim Murphy, it is a nice recruiting trip and a safe win. Emphasis on both.

2. Points Matter: Georgetown's offense was curtailed yet again Saturday, especially on the ground. But despite some stellar defensive ply, nine points doesn't win many football games. And with the possible exception of Bucknell, no other PL team scores as few points as Georgetown.

It leads to what I call the Rule of 15: Since 2012, Georgetown has averaged just 15.4 points per game. In games where it allows fewer than 15 points, Georgetown is 23-4.

In games where it allows more than 15 points, Georgetown is 6-56.

Two touchdowns a game is just not enough in the current era of college football. Through two games, Georgetown is averaging 14.5 points a game, 102nd of 122 schools. A smaller offensive line, smaller running backs, and a lack of time for the quarterback are all contributory factors but it puts a lot of pressure on the defense.  The offensive staff has to find a way to be more aggressive down the field to get points earlier in a game. Interceptions aren't good, but neither is ranking 117th nationally in red zone penetrations, which just five on the season to date.

3. Around the Patriot League: What a mess.

Holy Cross (2-1) and Georgetown (1-1) have combined for three non-conference wins this season. The other five teams are a combined 0-15.

Fordham, with admittedly tough competition in Nebraska and Florida Atlantic, is 0-3, outscored 123-44. But they're the best of a really poor bunch. Lafayette has been outscored outscored 78-30. Colgate, once a regular championship contender, has been outscored 102-10. Bucknell, never an offensive juggernaut, checks in at 106-9. The most surprising is Lehigh, outscored 110-6.

Veteran Patriot League sports columnist Chuck Burton discussed this last week. "It is not so much that what Villanova, Richmond or Princeton are doing is unfair," he wrote.  "They are abiding by NCAA rules and conference rules, which allow them to do these things.  But it demonstrates how Patriot League schools, by sitting pat, have put their student-athletes way behind the eight ball."

"In 2015, the entire FCS landscape was different," he continued.  "The Ivy League was largely adhering to self-imposed rules on recruiting and roster sizes - those changed.  The CAA was adhering to redshirt rules that had the practical effect of limiting the number of extra-year players - that changed.  And while those leagues were expanding their rosters and opportunities, the Patriot League was doing the opposite - they were migrating towards restricting rosters and limiting extra-year players.  And I firmly believe that explains the sudden, precipitous drop in competitiveness in the league across the board in the last five years... This isn't 2015 anymore.  The game has evolved and moved on, and it's high time the Patriot League did the same."

4. Cooper Field Review: I wasn't able to attend the Cooper Field opener but will have some thoughts in two weeks. If you did, drop a note on the HoyaTalk board with your thoughts.

Week 2 Thoughts

Some thoughts following Georgetown's 20-14 win over Delaware State this past Saturday.

1. The More Things Change... As games go between a 658 day absence, Saturday's game was fun, if, at a macro level, somewhat predictable (more on that below).  Given the absence of playing Marist probably cost Georgetown some familiarity in the first 20 minutes of this game, once the momentum picked up, the Hoyas were ready to take over.

College basketball coach Al McGuire once noted that the most important eight minutes of basketball are the last four minutes of the first half and the first for of the second, and it applied in this game as well. Getting that touchdown to close the first half may have been the play of the game, because I'm not sure where GU would be down 14-0 to enter the second half.

Years ago I did a study of Georgetown's record in the I-AA era when trailing by 10 or  more points a the half. The numbers were, well, prohibitive. In that sense, getting to 14-7 was just what a young team needed and the first four minutes allowed Georgetown to lock down the Hornets defensively and set up the tying touchdown drive in the next series.

Not every game is that cut and dried in those eight minutes, of course, but giving up a late touchdown is never, ever good for a team carrying a lead into halftime., or even one trying to build from it. Delaware State took in a pick -six to end the first half 26-3, the difference of the game as Bowie State scored 21 in the second half to close to 32-24.

But if blocking a field goal in overtime is a novel way to capture an opening win, the larger view confirms what has been a long standing pattern of Georgetown football, namely:

1. The defense always steps up.

2. The linebackers and secondary are Top 30 in the subdivision.

3. The offensive line cannot dominate the line of scrimmage.

4. The rushing game struggles.

5. If they can get the ball, the receivers can produce.

Some of this is the price of non-scholarship football, of course.  Coordinators come and go and GU has never been a particularly good rushing team in the PL era. In the last 25 years, just two Georgetown backs have rushed for more than 70 yards a game in a season. And with one back sets, it's even more noticeable.

The Hoyas rushed 32 times for 48 yards versus Delaware State,  109th of 114 schools for yardage and 112th in yards per carry.  The defense ranks 22nd overall in total defense allowed. Again, no surprise. But unless the defense can continue to block kicks and pick off two or  three passes a game, a tepid offense is a point of concern as the schedule steps up. Harvard may be shaking off its own rust this coming week but their athletes tend to be bigger, faster, and more agile on offense than Georgetown is comfortable with. The Hoyas have scored just 22 points in four games versus Harvard since 2014, and 17 of those came in one game. For better or worse, the run game is an area of opportunity.

2. Changing Channels. Saturday's game was Georgetown's first under the PL's new contract with ESPN+. So how did it go?

From a production point of view, a solid game. Del State's game are managed through a partnership with Heritage Sports Radio Network, which provides coverage of historically black colleges and universities--viewers heard the HSRN audio with the ESPN+ video, which was fine, even if the DSU analyst had some peculiar phrasing, using the formal name of the school frequently in the broadcast, e.g., "That was a fine tackle by Delaware State University linebacker Kamari Jackson." Overall, a good product, even if I shuddered when the pregame show asked, "So, what's a Hoya anyway? Is it a shrub?"

Really? It's not 1984 anymore.

The previous broadcasts under Stadium featured Jeremy Huber were very well done. But ESPN+ is just video, so announcers are important. Last week's broadcast of Monmouth at Fordham had no announcers and no "time and distance" graphics, leaving viewers to rely on the public address announcer and some slight murmurs from the press box along the line of "Hey, did he catch that?"

Depending on the agreement, ESPN+ can be a net gain to a conference or just a means to offload production on someone else. Either way, it's a net gain to expand visibility of PL games, even if the recent product has been, well, bad.

3. Whither The Patriot League: Some rough times for the PL over the first two weeks.  Georgetown's win was one of only two PL non-conference wins this season in 13 games. Fans of Bucknell, Colgate, Fordham, Lehigh, and Lafayette are a combined 0-10 so far this season.

Why is this?

There has been a trend of diminishing returns for PL teams since 2016 in the non-conference, some of which is a reflection of better competition. Georgetown notwithstanding, each of the other six PL teams are or will be adding major college (I-A, FBS) opponents. So far this season, PL teams have played the likes of Air Force, Boston College, Connecticut, and Nebraska, with Florida Atlantic and Army in future weeks.  With this in mind, it's not unexpected that PL teams would be taking on losses, but what has been more surprising is that teams have not performed to expectations against  comparable opponents, such as a third year FCS team Merrimack beating Holy Cross or Monmouth defeating Fordham.

The "why's" aren't altogether apparent given the 60-scholarship status of the other six teams, but the next three weeks will see these teams face more Ivy League competition and not Big Ten teams. In recent years, the former expectation that a 60-scholarship PL team would dominate a non-scholarship Ivy team is long since gone. But will they be  competitive?  

I've made this point before. As long as the Patriot League maintains the Academic Index (and what've I've argued as an artificial restraint to recruiting), the overall talent level of the PL is not appreciably different than when it was as a non-scholarship conference. This is why the schools of the Northeast Conference, once not much different that the MAAC Football League, has moved past the Patriot League in nearly every case.

That's why the Merrimack-Holy Cross was striking. Merrimack is a former D-II nonscholarship school which moved to FCS to 2019 and will offer 40 scholarships in the NEC. The Warriors didn't sneak past Holy Cross, they beat them, and the contrast between a HC team that won convincingly at Connecticut in Week 1 and lost at home is apparent.

The Week 3 games are below. Will there be some signs of improvement? There may not be any single Patriot League team favored heading into the games, and that's discouraging.

Princeton (0-0) at Lehigh (0-2), 12 pm

Holy Cross (1-1) at Yale (0-0), 12 pm

Harvard (0-0) at Georgetown (1-0), 12:30 pm

New Hampshire (2-0) at Lafayette (0-2), 12:30 pm

William & Mary (1-1) at Colgate (0-2), 1 pm

Fordham (0-2) at Florida Atlantic (1-1), 6 pm

Pennsylvania (0-0) at Bucknell (0-2), 6 pm

Next week, we'll take a closer look at these games and see what Georgetown can learn from these matchups.

Week 1 Thoughts

 

Some thoughts following week 1 of the 2021 college football season. So let's start with the obvious question.

1. What Happened? Many years ago, I worked at a firm whose director turned to me and remarked, matter of factly, the following about the company. "Communication," he said, "is a one way street."

Georgetown's August 31 press release  cancelling the season opener versus Marist checks a lot of boxes down that street.

The release was sent at 6:00 pm, after the close of business. It lists no media contact for follow-up questions. It has no quote from the head coach. But most frustrating, as a fan, supporter, and someone who has spent too much time on this to analyze, is that it never fully answers the question. Why did you wait to cancel a game three days before the opener?

Like many things at GU, I have no doubt that this decision was made for the right reasons. If players were sufficiently incapable or at risk of playing a game to the detriment of their health, not playing is entirely reasonable and appropriate. They certainly weren't trying to "dodge" an opponent. But why can't the circumstances have been clarified? The words "positive test" are never cited. What is presented is "a COVID-related pause during training camp which affected preseason preparations and conditioning."

 "It did catch me off guard because we’ve had no COVID issues here," Marist coach Jim Parady told the Middletown (NY) Times Herald-Record. “It was a surprise and not on my radar at all."

 According to public data on the District of Columbia web site, there were four COVID outbreaks within DC universities (which we can define as American, Catholic, George Washington, Georgetown, Gallaudet, Howard or UDC) on the week of August 6. An outbreak is defined by the District as " as two or more cases of COVID-19 reported at a location which have a plausible epidemiological link." During that week, Georgetown reported zero positive tests among residents on the  Main Campus, per its published numbers.

A week later, the DC public data reported one outbreak reported at a "sports facility". Georgetown reported 13 positive cases that week, but was not specific to a sports facility nor who they were. In its most recent release, Georgetown's overall positivity rate is just 0.55% among over 10,000 tests a week. In advertising lore, 99.44% was once considered the gold standard to sell Ivory Soap, but that's not 2021.

COVID data is anonymized so as not to be diffuse. We also heard of no issues in other GU sports practicing on or near Cooper Field during this time, and none have been postponed or cancelled. I'm neither prepared nor presume to know enough about epidemiology to assume anything, but to bring it back to this question: why was this communicated with such opacity?

Maybe that's all they had. Maybe the narrative got sent "up the hill", so to speak, where sensitive press releases land in the deep bureaucracy of Georgetown PR and legal scrutiny. Or, as much as anything, they didn't have to say anything more to get the message out, and didn't.  

As such, it came and went with little fanfare. The Washington Post, The HOYA, and Georgetown Voice did not even report it. The only media to cover it were two newspapers in and around the Poughkeepsie, NY area, where Marist football gets more coverage than does Georgetown in Washington, DC. So, like a lot of things at GU, it's been forgotten. 

Despite a positivity rate of  9.6% nationally among among over 1.4 million tests last week, the Georgetown-Marist game was was one of only two games featuring two NCAA Division I teams to be cancelled nationwide.

2. Your (New) Home Opener: Even before the cancellation, there was next to no promotion of the Marist game as a home opener to the fan base outside friends and family, which remains a sore spot with me given the numerous missed opportunities to build a better rapport between football and a student body that, well, half of whom have never seen a college game because they've just arrived on the campus.

OK, the home opener shifts to Harvard on  Sep. 18. Will there be any effort to promote the game? Will tailgates fall afoul of "an abundance of caution"?  Will Cooper Field, a subject all its own, hold enough people (or too many) given Harvard's healthy turnouts in prior years?

No sporting event at GU thus far has drawn over 655 fans, with low turnouts for games in men's and women's soccer and volleyball. Field hockey and football won't see a home opener until the weekend of Sep. 17-18. Is 3,000 at the Harvard game a goal, or a concern?

3. Around The League: The PL was 1-5 in opening round non-conference games. That's an improvement over a winless 0-7 in Week 1 of 2019, the most recent season with non-conference play. Stronger competition notwithstanding, it does not recast the narrative that these continue to be lean times for the league.

First, the good news for the PL. Holy Cross earned its first win over a major college opponent since 2002, 38-28, at Connecticut. A day later, UConn head coach Randy Edsall (he of a recent two year contract extension) suddenly announced his retirement, effective at the end of the season. Edsall took note to say it was his decision. (In college coaching changes, very, very little is the head coach's decision.) A decade ago, Edsall took the Huskies to the Fiesta Bowl. In his last 26 games at Storrs, he is 3-23.

A loss to Purdue or Central Florida probably wasn't sending Edsall to an early retirement. A loss to a Patriot League team did, however.

"I don’t think there was one person in that locker room that didn’t think we had a really good chance to win this game,” Holy Cross linebacker Liam Anderson told the Worcester Telegram-Gazette, one of the dwindling few newspapers covering PL football.  The Huskies were flat in their opener with Fresno State and it continued Saturday, UConn managed 88 yards on the ground and gave up a four play, 98 yard drive that put away the game for the Crusaders midway through the fourth quarter after neither team led by more than seven for the first 50 minutes of play. Each of UConn's final two drives of the game  ended in interceptions.

HC is the runaway favorite to en route to a third consecutive PL title. The only apparent roadblock, Fordham, exceeded expectations  in a 52-7 loss at Nebraska. For one thing,  the Cornhuskers was a 55 point favorite, but this was a 7-7 game early and the Rams had 221 yards by halftime, trailing 24-7. Nebraska put on the heat in the second half for a Big Red crowd that was not in the mood for anything less.

"I think our kids did a great job," said Fordham coach Joe Conlin. "Everyone was very nice, it's a heck of a venue, so the atmosphere I don't think affected us in any way, shape or form." The Rams and their $500,000 appearance fee landed safely to New York.

Lafayette played better than expected in a 35-14 loss at Air Force. Trailing 28-7 at the half, the Leopards kept it respectable in the second half but had no ground game versus the Falcons, having been outrushed 375 to 43. In the PL's other game versus I-A opponents, Colgate was routed at Boston College, 52-0. The Red Raiders were outgained 525 to 189 in total offense and a 30-0 score after three quarters was padded by three late touchdowns by the Eagles, picked for third in the ACC Atlantic Division.

The PL's two games versus I-AA competition might be more troubling, however. Lehigh was stomped on by Villanova in the Engineers' home opener, 47-3. Lehigh gave up six turnovers and were outgained 506 to 139. Villanova transfer Dez Boykin, late of Lehigh, scored two touchdowns on the afternoon.

Bucknell was lifeless in a 21-0  loss to Sacred Heart. Two Bucknell quarterbacks combined for 55 yards on eight completions in 22 attempts. As the Sacred Heart announcers put it, there was a time when a win over Bucknell was a major upset for their program. Not anymore. The Bison have lost 11 consecutive non-conference games dating to the 2017 season. Next up, Villanova.

Scholarships have opened the door to guarantee games for six Patriot League schools . A 45 point loss before 85,938 fans in Lincoln, Nebraska may not fit the ethos and culture of Georgetown, but every other PL school is loading up on them in years to come. For now, they're losses. By season's end, they may be something more valuable: experience.