Sunday, August 5, 2018

Georgetown 2018 Preview: The Offense


The fifth year of Rob Sgarlata's tenure begins as its head coach has the support of the team, the coaches, the athletic director, and the University. What he does not have is wins.

In four seasons, Sgarlata's teams are 11-33 and 3-21 against Patriot League teams, the fewest of any multi-year PL coach since Larry Glueck at Fordham from 1990 to 1993. In the last two and a half seasons, Georgetown has dropped 15 consecutive Patriot League games, a league record. Because of, if not in spite of, Georgetown's quixotic stand against scholarship aid in football, it's not expected to be much better in 2018.

That's not to say Georgetown isn't taking a gamble, however. After four declining seasons of offense under Michael Neuberger, Sgarlata hired Patrick Murphy from Tufts as the new offensive coordinator. Out of nowhere, Murphy quit a month later for the offensive coordinator job at Holy Cross. Next up: Rob Spence.

A former offensive coordinator at Clemson nicknamed  "the mad scientist" by Clemson fans, Spence has been an enigma of sorts.  Despite the accolades he earned under Terry Bowden, Spence has been on the move since 2008...literally. In the last ten seasons he has not stayed at any college program more than two seasons. He served as offensive coordinator at Syracuse in 2009, where the Orangemen finished 4-8 and head coach Doug Marrone named himself the OC the following season. Spence continued on at Temple in 2010, Bethune Cookman in 2011, and Rutgers in 2012, serving two seasons as quarterbacks coach under Kyle Flood, but was fired in 2013.

A two year detour to the high school ranks led Spence to Tennessee-Chattanooga in 2016, where the Mocs finished 9-4 under Russ Huesman. But when Huesman left for Richmond, Spence was on the road again, this time to Morgan State, where the Bears finished 1-10 in 2017. Out went head coach Fred Farrier, and, well, you guessed it, Spence was on the move.

Whether Spence will prove to be the next Dave Patenaude or the next Elliot Uzelac remains to be seen.  What is expected is a pass-dominant offense, something Georgetown could either work very well, or even worse than 2017.

Offensive Line

Georgetown lost three starters to graduation across the line, but with injuries and frequent substitutions in 2017, experience remains.

The tackle positions could be anchored by the Horne brothers, with sophomore Daniel Horne on the left and senior Jared Horne on the right. With open positions at the guard positions, senior Tower Menning and junior Justin Wood are leading candidates in training camp, with senior Randy Crystian returning from injuries suffered last season. Fifth year senior Dominic Scarangella figures to have the nod at center with sophomore Izaiah Thompson as his early successor.

Five freshmen enter the season to compete across the line, but most may be a year away from sustained action: 6-2 Neal Azar, , 6-3 Alex Ederson, 6-4 T.J. Thomas, 6-5 Josh Stevens, and 6-6 Mac Hollensteiner. A graduate of the Landon School, Hollensteiner has local interest while Stevens, from Ruskin, FL, was a big pickup in the recruiting wars last fall.

Georgetown has always fielded a small offensive line by comparison to its opponents and 2018 will be no different. Scholarship football has afforded PL schools the opportunity to build up the size and depth of its offensive lines, but Georgetown remains small by comparison. Lehigh, for example,  averaged 298 pounds across its starting lineup at season's end, Georgetown 286. The Hoyas' OL size ranges from 244 pounds (Theron Cooper) to 307 (Daniel Horne) and  has not shown the ability to open holes for its runners as a result. If that's not a priority this year, it must protect the quarterback, where Gunther Johnson and Clay Norris combined to receive 28 sacks in 2017.

Running Backs

The Hoyas have struggled mightily in the Patriot League era on the ground. Last year's squad was no different, averaging 58 yards per game on the ground and ending the season 120th of 123 teams in the subdivision in rushing.

Georgetown's rushing numbers weren't great but its chief contributors in the backfield have all left: Alex Valles and Isaac Ellsworth graduated, while Christian Bermudez will not return for his senior season. Senior Carl Thomas, with 95 yards last season, is the leading returnee.

Without scholarships, the Georgetown running pool is inevitably small and must rely on speed on the corners through the line to provide any ground game. Of the current candidates, none are taller than 6-0 and most are under 200 pounds, and defenses will play the Hoyas tight as a result. Juniors  Jay Tolliver and Christian Safford will compete for a starting role, while GU only signed one back in the 2018 recruiting class: 5-11 Herman Moultrie III, who chose Georgetown over Bucknell and a variety of Pioneer League schools.

While it remains unrealistic to see an impact runner coming to play in Washington, the Hoyas must keep defenses honest, lest opposing secondaries sit back and double-down on receivers while its linebackers key in on bubble screens out of the backfield. Unfortunately, that may be Georgetown's only option in 2018.

Receivers

Georgetown will carry 11 receivers into camp in 2018, though three veterans stand at the top.

Junior Michael Dereus is the leading returner, with 46 receptions for 596 yards and five touchdowns, third best overall in the PL. Senior Brandon Williams, who will wear the Eacobacci Memorial #35 jersey, only played in eight games but offers another option with his speed and downfield moves. Junior Max Edwards (18-257, 1 TD) is another good option.

The Spence offense may bring new names to the stat sheet. Two to watch may be junior Dijon Williams, who brings experience as a 4 x 400 runner into his skill set, and Skyler Springs, whose father (Shawn) and grandfather (Ron) were each NFL veterans.

Three incoming freshmen are WR candidates, including 6-1 Cameron Crayton, who had offers from a pair of Mid-American Conference schools before opting for Georgetown. Crayton was the only Georgetown recruit listed on the Hero Sports top 25 list for PL signees in 2018.

The tight end position is wide open. Two seniors and two sophomores will compete on the depth chart but it is too son to determine what role, if any, the TE position will offer in lieu of playing with an extra WR.

Quarterbacks

After a frustrating junior year which saw him lose the starting job to Gunther Johnson at mid-season, senior Clay Norris did not return for his senior season, leaving the job to Johnson and four backups, none of whom have played a down of college football.

Johnson ended the season with 1,026 yards passing, four touchdowns and six interceptions, sixth among seven PL quarterbacks and last in passing efficiency with a 94.0 rating.  Johnson was winless in his four starts and struggled in the final three games of the season, where GU's passing yards decreased  in each of the three games and bottomed out with just 101 yards versus Colgate, with six first downs on the afternoon.

Johnson threw for 2,400 yards as a senior in high school and should have the opportunity to match that in 2018 if Georgetown goes all-in on the passing game. He has the skills to do so, but is fighting the odds against injuries, which has been a part of life for Georgetown quarterbacks in the Patriot League. Since 2001, just three Georgetown quarterbacks have gone wire to wire during a season at QB, something that eluded Tim Barnes over consecutive seasons.

Georgetown's best, perhaps only chance in 2018 is 11 healthy games from Johnson at QB. Three backups are available, but with question marks.

Senior Jowan Watson threw for 3200 yards as a high school senior and has not seen any action in three seasons, and did not escape the two-deep in 2017. Another Georgetown player with NFL bloodlines, sophomore Joe Brunell, would also be facing his first college competition if called up; but he is out for the season with a spring injury.  Two freshman, Lorenzo Linsey and walk-on Jack Elliott, may see action as a backup, but it is unlikely. All things being equal, any setback for Johnson on or off the field would introduce considerable uncertainty into an offense that has no room for error.

Expectations For the Offense

Outside of Cooper Field, expectations are low for this offense. The arrival of Spence adds an air of possibility for the offense, which can get yards from Dereus and Williams, if they can get the ball. But without more consistency on the offensive line and a sustainable running game, the Hoyas' offense may be little more to how fast Gunther Johnson can release the ball before he is overwhelmed by stunts and interior blitzes by opportunistic defenses.

Spence's reputation was built on his success at Clemson, but that was over a decade ago. In his most recent season at Morgan State, the 2017 Bears averaged just 204 yards per game in the air en route to a 1-10 season. Adding an extra 18 yards a game to GU's 182 yard average from 2017 won't solve the Hoyas' structural problems on offense. It may, however, be the Hoyas' best hope.

In conference call comments at what used to pass for Patriot League Media Day, Sgarlata remarked that the 2018 Hoyas have to learn to play four quarters of football. The aforementioned last place finish in time of possession was magnified by the fact that Georgetown's time of possession gap increased in every quarter over the course of the season.  If the offense cannot muster consistent drives, time of possession isn't going to get better; hence, the high risk, high reward paradox of a pass-dominant offense.

Whether it was Patrick Murphy, Rob Spence, or someone else entirely, the facts were apparent: change is needed for a Georgetown offense, scoring just two touchdowns over its final five games of the 2017 season. Do the 2018 Hoyas have the ability to reverse this trend, or will the losses continue?

 Coming In Part II: The Defense.