Some thoughts following Holy Cross' 48-14 win over Georgetown Saturday.
1. Three Numbers. If you never saw this game, it wouldn't have taken much to consider Georgetown the underdog, and a considerable one at that. Holy Cross entered as two-time Patriot League champs and are likely favorites for a winner-take-all meeting versus Fordham in early November. Georgetown is none of these and no one will mistake an early win at Delaware State for an early win at Connecticut.
But the numbers aren't just about Holy Cross' dominance but speak to some significant underperformance in the Hoyas this far this year. It's not about Rob Sgarlata's "the one percent" or even what Sgarlata's predecessor used to call "fanatical effort". Here are three numbers that tell the tale of the 2021 season to date:
- 33.8
- 1.17
- 1
Let's look at each of them.
First, 33.8 is the average number of points allowed this season, 96th among 123 I-AA/FCS teams this season. By itself, that's a daunting number and not a lot of winning programs can give up as many points and be competitive. But as a comparison to recent Georgetown teams, it's a point of concern.
Here are the average points allowed over the last five seasons:
2019: 16.6
2018: 21.0
2017: 27.2
2016: 23.3
2015: 26.9
In fact, you have to go back to the 2007 season (1-10) for a comparable points per game like 2021. It's compounded by Georgetown's traditionally low scoring offense and, as we noted earlier in this series, the Rule of 15.
If you're giving up 33 a game, you need to be scoring 34, and the last Georgetown team to do that was in 1978.
The defense as a whole has been disappointing. We may see an improvement against Bucknell, if only because the Bison offense is fairly underwhelming on its own (8.5 points per game), but it doesn't address the issue: Georgetown can't be giving up this many points and win games.
1.17 is the number of yards per attempt on the ground this year. That's the fewest of any Division I school, FBS or FCS. Georgetown may not be a run-first offense by any means, but it's not a tenable figure when defenses can sag back in the secondary and let their lines clean up on the ground.
This is not some indiscretion of youth. While the Holy Cross announce team was charitable in discussing that Georgetown was a very young team, that's not the case in the backfield. Three of Georgetown's four leading rushers are graduating in 2022, and another is a junior. Freshman Naieem Kearney may have a productive future but he certainly can't do it alone in 2022. This may be for a longer term discussion, but while Georgetown is a "young" team, its starting line up is not: ten of 11 offensive starters graduate in 2022, eight of 11 on defense.
Only one Georgetown rusher since 1996 has averaged six or more yards per carry, and not since 2003. The leading rusher in 2021 is at 2.2 yards, which at present is the lowest in the modern era.
Finally, the number 1. One, as in interceptions, as in none since the second quarter of the Delaware State game. Maybe it's not fair to compare this defense to the 2018 defense that combined for a remarkable 20 interceptions in 11 games. Or even 2019, with 12 INT's to its credit. But one? Georgetown is one of five schools with that statistic, and for a defense which leads by example, it's an abrupt turn of events from the teams which preceded them.
Of these three cautionary numbers, points per game stands at the top. Given Georgetown's offense, the Hoyas aren't going to overwhelm anyone on offense, having scored more than 31 points just three times in the last ten years against PL opponents. Defense gives the Hoyas a chance, but if there 's no defense, there's no chance, run game or not.
2. Dwindling Coverage. File this away for 2022 off season, but while ESPN+ makes watching the game easier, the lack of coverage overall continues to atrophy across the league.
I noticed that Holy Cross no longer broadcasts the game on radio, and by extension, online. Whether it was the late Bob Fouracre or a student group at WCHC, radio is a victim of streaming. As a student editor told me a few years ago, students don't listen to radio and even he was unaware Georgetown basketball was on it, and didn't know who Rich Chvotkin was.
Bucknell's Doug Birdsong now broadcasts the Bison on ESPN+, with his distinctive voice that could pass for Baylor's frenetic John Morris. The radio still lives in rural Pennsylvania, and there should be a place for it within college football. But the transistor radio of days gone by has become an iPhone.
And when radio's gone, it's gone. The last Georgetown games on the radio date to the early 2000's. No one has picked up the mantle since, including WGTB, to whom radio is just one extended music set, devoid of news, sports, or comment. I could go on at length about the futility of WGTB as a lost opportunity in engagement within the community, but here's one: this is WGTB's 75th anniversary, and it will pass without notice in 2021. QED.
3. FCS Conference Realignment: It's dog-eat-dog at the major college ranks this fall, with the SEC biting off two from the Big 12 and the Big 12 biting off three from the American Athletic Conference (AAC). This week, the AAC did its part by announcing it'll take six-six schools from Conference USA to show it means business. The league that once held the football likes of Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh as fthe pre-2013 Big East football league will now add football names such as Texas-San Antonio, Charlotte, and Florida Atlantic.
The food chain appears to be contained to FBS with one exception: James Madison. The Dukes have made no secret of seeking a status beyond the CAA as did their cross-commonwealth peer in Old Dominion once did. JMU would prefer the Sun Belt, they of such schools as Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Arkansas State, but the Sun Belt may sit this round out. Would the remainder of Conference USA (Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, ODU, Western Kentucky, Southern Miss) take a chance on James Madison?
Early signs are, as the magic eight-ball says, cloudy. But a future move by James Madison opens a seat in the CAA, and with it, a question: what Eastern schools would be suitable candidates? Probably not NEC schools, probably not MEAC. A school at full scholarship football and an ability to play at a high-major level, at least as FCS is constructed.
Georgetown? No. But one or two other PL schools fit that bill. Let's park this for now, but if the Dukes move up, watch to see who pays attention.
