Wednesday, August 31, 2022

2022 Football Preview: The Patriot League

For a league whose publicity team has ground to a halt, little is heard about the Patriot League amidst other FCS conferences in 2022. The continued decline of the league obscures one of its best stories in a generation as the season awaits. With that, here is a 2022 preview of the league:

1. Holy Cross (10-3, 6-0 in 2021)

The Crusaders stand on the precipice of an unprecedented fourth consecutive PL title, calling to mind the halcyon days of Holy Cross football under Mark Duffner from 1986 to 1991, when HC was 60-5-1 with five Top 10 finishes and the #1 ranking in the subdivision at the end of the 1987. 

Bob Chesney's fourth full recruiting class gives HC a level of depth unmatched in other PL teams, and returning 17 players from last year's team gives the Crusaders a clear path to a fourth title.

The Crusaders dominated the ground game in 2021 and will continue to do so. Junior QB Matthew Sluka rushed for more touchdowns (14) than the entire Georgetown team (13) in 2021, and is ably aided by senior RB Peter Oliver, who led the league in rushing. Four returnees on the offensive line will clear the way, and seven of the first team pre-season all-PL selections hail from the Crusaders.

Holy Cross will be charged to step up defensively, despite having finished 2021 ranked #1 in the nation in total defense. Five of its seven all-PL selections from 2021 return, led by all-American Jacob Dobbs, but need to get its defensive line in order before PL play. Holy Cross returns its entire secondary and that's a huge advantage in shutting down pass games late in the game.

Two games stand in the way of HC running the table: a September 10 game at Buffalo and a September 24 game at Colgate. Barring a stumble thereafter, a fourth title appears on its way.

2. Fordham  (6-5, 4-2 in 2021)

An opening loss at Nebraska and an 0-3 start was merely a warm-up for the Rams last season, whose offense was the better of anyone not named Holy Cross. A similar verdict is expected in 2022.

Senior QB Tim DeMorat is within range of most of the school's career passing records and should be capable of breaking each of them. Averaging 300 yards per game in 2021 with a league's best 147.1 efficiency rating, DeMorat has weapons across the field, including seniors  Fotis Kokosioulis, Dequece Carter, and M.J. Wright, with  Kokosioulis and Carter finishing 1-2 in receiving yards in the PL last fall. 

The defense is promising, returning nine starters, with LB Ryan Greenhagen as an All-American candidate. The Rams suffered mightily in pass defense in 2021, giving up 264 yards a game through the air, and it's a point of emphasis this season. Rare is the champion that is ranked first on offense and last on defense, so Fordham needs to show improvement with a veteran ensemble.

The Rams 2022 non-conference schedule is more forgiving, with its toughest game a September 24 game at Ohio. In the end, however, its most important games stands on October 29 at Holy Cross, which could well determine the champion.

3. Colgate (5-6, 5-1 in 2021)

After the undiscussed firing of  Dan Hunt after the 2020 season, the Red Raiders reloaded with Stan Dakosty, who fought back from a 2-6  start to sweep his last three and carry a second place finish in his first season. 

Colgate returns seven starters form 2021, including PL Rookie of the year Michael Brescia, with 1,182 all-purpose yards and an expected start at quarterback this season. The Red Raiders, usually a run-heavy team, were fifth in the PL in rushing with just 162 yards per game, but its end of season finish gives more confidence that they can reassert themselves in 2022.

There are holes on the defense, where Colgate was second to Holy Cross last season. The defensive line looks to be solid, but the Red Raiders may take their collective lumps in the secondary before league play.

As to its schedule, well, there's no Marist of Columbia on this schedule. The Red Raiders open with three straight on the road beginning at Stanford, and could easily be 1-5 before meeting Georgetown on October 24. The schedule is front-loaded, however, and a four game stretch with Bucknell, Lafayette, Lehigh, and Fordham could be Colgate's chance to move up the standings.

4. Lafayette (3-8, 2-4 in 2021)

The bottom half of the Patriot League is a steep drop-off from the top three, giving new Lafayette head coach John Troxell a chance to move into relative contention, at least as league records go.

The Leopards return just four starters on offense from 2021. Wide receivers Julius Young  and Joe Gillette are good options if the offensive line, featuring three sophomores and a senior transfer, can gain traction. The rest of the offense was a middle of the pack effort in 2021 and could well be the same this season.

Defensively, the Leopards are poised for progress. Lafayette returns its entire front line, led by four time All-PL lineman Malik Hamm, the PL pre-season defensive player of the year. LB Billy Shaeffer, who was lost to injury last season, could be an all-PL selection by season's end, but the Leopards must rebuild a secondary that allowed just six passing touchdowns last fall.  Three sophomores and two freshman are already on the depth chart, with Troxell seeing a promising future down the road.

Back to back games with Temple and William &  Mary are stern tests for the Leopards in 2022, as are consecutive games in November at Colgate and at Fordham, neither of which the Leopards will be favored. A home game with Lehigh to end the season may tip the scales for  Lafayette in the rivalry game as well as the 2022 standings, where a .500 season would be a sign of progress, in that LC has not finished a full season over .500 since 2009.

5. Lehigh (3-8, 3-3 in 2021)

If there is such thing as a hot seat in Patriot League football, it resides at Lehigh, where the proud Engineers program has been in a five year rut that began with the sad news of the diagnosis of early onset Alzheimer's disease for coach Andy Coen, who left the team in 2018 and died this past April. Lehigh went to a veteran hand in former Holy Cross coach Tom Gilmore, but the results have not been good. Lehigh has posted three straight losing seasons and is currently in its poorest four season run since the 1960's. At any PL school but Georgetown, that's a sign for trouble.

Were it not for a three game run at the end of 2021, last season may have been rock bottom. The Engineers started 0-8, and did not score a touchdown until the seventh week of the season, finishing next to the bottom of FCS in scoring, ahead of only Bucknell. 

The 2022 season could be another long year offensively. Not a single Lehigh returnee was named to the pre-season all-PL team on offense, likely a first in the history of the league. QB Dante Perri will seek to build off his late-season play in 2022, but must rely on a rebuilt offensive line, with there projected starters that did not play their respective positions in 2021. It's faint praise that the Lehigh media notes tell us that Eric Johnson led the team with just 28 pass receptions last season, but the Engineers need help across the board on offense alongside a defense that did show improvement through a rough 2021 campaign.

Lehigh's early concerns will be along its defensive line, so its opening week game at Villanova may provide Georgetown some early clues about its week two opponent. 

The schedule is not favorable to Gilmore, with Georgetown being the only game Lehigh may be favored in among its first five games, and facing an end of season run at Colgate. home versus Holy Cross, and at Lafayette. Its October schedule, with three home games and a road game at Cornell, may be Gilmore's best chance at making a case for a fifth season.

6. Georgetown  (2-8, 1-5 in 2021)

Despite the softest non-conference schedule in the PL for 2022, Georgetown's prospects for winning football remain distant. The talent gap with the rest of the Patriot League is as wide as it has ever been in the PL scholarship era, with the non-scholarship Hoyas relying heavily on seniors and fifth years to stay close in games. To date, however, the next group is even further behind.

The Hoyas strength is in its receivers, particularly Cameron Crayton and Joshua Tomas, but Georgetown needs better production from its traditionally weak running game to keep defenses honest. Without it, Georgetown will fall back to relying on short passes to stay close, but 84 yards per game last season on the ground isn't winning any games on the margin in 2022.

The Hoyas defense sagged to fifth in the PL last season and with holes to fill in the secondary may well do so again. Its front line needs to maintain parity along the line of scrimmage against passers who will test a yet-unproven secondary. Any early problems with the line in the opener with Marist will be an especially bad sign against four very good quarterbacks awaiting on the opposing schedule this season.

Georgetown lost three leads in the fourth quarter last season and its two wins were late as well: an overtime squeaker versus Delaware State and a win in the final minutes at Bucknell. Anything more than one PL win may be a reach for this team if the defense does not step up.

7. Bucknell  (1-10, 0-6 in 2021)

The 2021 season was futile for Bucknell, whose 24-10 mid-season win over Cornell was the only sign of life for the nation's lowest rated FCS offense.  The Bison opened the season being outscored 106-9 in its first three games and 146-22 in its last three. 

Bucknell returns eight starters on both offense and defense, so they should be improved. Five sophomores will see starts on the offense in its opener versus Towson, including QB Ethan Grady, who started the final five games of the 2021 season and passed for a season's best 162 yards against Georgetown on October 23. Like Georgetown, the Bison rely on receivers, with its top two wideouts, sophomore Marques Owens and junior Damian Harris returning this fall.

Four seniors anchor a Bison secondary that finished ahead of Lehigh and Fordham on pass defense, but the team struggled on the line, giving up  an average of 242 yards per game on the ground. Linebackers Brent Jackson and Ben Allen combined for 149 tackles between them, so they need help up front.

The early schedule does coach Dave Cecchini no favors, with Towson, VMI, and Central Michigan to open September and consecutive road games with Holy Cross, Yale, and Lehigh  in mid-October. An end of season exacta at Georgetown and home versus Marist may be the best hope for Bucknell to get into the win column this season.