Week 8 Thoughts, After The Bye

Some thoughts following Colgate's 34-24 win over Georgetown this past Saturday:

1. A Milestone: Yes, a milestone, and not an encouraging one. Saturday's loss was the 100th loss in Patriot League play for Georgetown since 2001, which gets even less encouraging in comparison to the record at large: 24-100. 

Some numbers behind the 100:

1. The distribution across schools is fairly even. Putting aside two losses to exiting member Towson in 2001 and 2003, the records are as follows:

Bucknell: 7-13
Lafayette: 7-13
Holy Cross: 4-16
Fordham: 3-18
Colgate: 1-18
Lehigh: 1-20
(It does no one any good when GU's combined records against three of these opponents is 5-56.)

2. The average margin of defeat over these 100 games is 19 points. Twenty games have been decided by less than a touchdown, 20 games by four touchdowns or more. In the 24 wins, nine have been by less than a touchdown and one by four touchdowns or more

3. Of 40 Eastern schools who have played in the I-AA/FCS subdivision continuously since 2001, Georgetown and Cornell have the fewest winning seasons, just one each.

Two decades ago, Bob Benson warned everyone that would listen that it was going to be an uphill climb, but even the optimist in Benson would not have predicted how long it would take. Yes, it took Fordham 12 years, we thought at the time, but surely it wouldn't take Georgetown  that long, right? Benson won five PL games in five seasons. Kevin Kelly won ten in eight seasons, four of which was in the 2011 season alone. Rob Sgarlata stands at just nine.

Much time and digital ink has been spent on these pages discussing the whys of what got Georgetown to this place.  Institutionally, there's no good direction on where to improve things. If it were just the coaching, that's an easier call, but it's not. Better player recruiting and development is a given, bit how do you accomplish this against the PL admissions firewall? Scheduling remains parochial at best: while Lafayette will play Duke next fall, Georgetown likely welcomes that old friend, Marist, and we wonder why interest remains so low.

Georgetown has parallels elsewhere in college football: Vanderbilt is certainly one of them. It has never won an SEC championship, plays in the smallest stadium in the conference, has a overall conference winning record of .257, and is 1-28 in SEC play since the 2018 season. What it has that Georgetown does not is a TV contract for the ages: between 2025 and 2035, Vanderbilt will receive up to $1 billion in rights fees, and that buys a lot of sorrows.

But for all its sorrows, Vanderbilt doesn't compete like it's 2001 and neither should Georgetown. How do we invest in a future and not just pay for the present? Otherwise, it's more of the same.

2. Colgate, Redux: The Hoyas came as close to Collages as might be expected Saturday, but the defensive lapses continue unabated. Giving up six consecutive scoring drives is unacceptable no matter the defensive coordinator, the team captains or whoever is on the field. 

One statistic, as much as any, tells the story of the 2022 Georgetown Hoyas:  it is rated last in FCS (123rd) in third down conversions allowed, 56.8 percent. That keeps a lot of drives going, and leads to a lot of points. Colgate converted 10 third down drives last week and most led to scores. 

The losing streak has obscured some solid play by the offense, particularly in the passing game. Pierce Holley is 14th nationally in passing yards and Joshua Tomas is ninth in receiving yards. Post-season individual honors are rare for 1-6 teams, and both may be overlooked when all is said and done. But we shouldn't.

3. Around the PL: It's still two good teams and five weaker ones in the league, and those two collide Saturday in Worcester for, barring something completely unexpected, the PL championship.  Last week's games didn't change this trajectory a bit.

Bucknell 19, Lehigh 17: A late field goal ended a 13 game losing streak for the Bison, while the Tom Gilmore era at Bethlehem continues to grow darker. The Bison get a resurgent Colgate team this week, with three of its final four at home. Lehigh gets the buy and faces Holy Cross in two weeks. At present,  Lehigh's only win is the 21-19 win at Georgetown.

Holy Cross 24, Lafayette 21: A good game for both teams, and a view into the rapidly improving Leopards under John Troxell. HC needed a pair of late plays, including a score with 4:00 left, to hang on. A trap game? No, just the kind of good, strong test on the road the Crusaders will need to close out the season unbeaten, with  all eyes, at least those outside Easton and Lewisburg, to meet the mighty offense of Fordham.

Week 6 Thoughts

 

Some thoughts following Penn's 59-28 win over Georgetown Saturday:

1. Anchor(ed) Down: Say what you will about the defense, and we will, but a team which does not successfully run the ball is a team that does not win. 

Enter the 115th ranked Georgetown Hoyas, featuring a senior and a fifth year graduate student, with 82 yards per game. Excepting the Marist game, that number drops to just 54.2 yards a game, which would rank 122nd of 123 teams. This is not a knock on the players in the backfield, because by year four or five they're doing their best work, or an offensive line which is comprised of one junior, three seniors, and a fifth year. Not an underclassmen to be found. And what does it say about 2023 when the one returning member of the depth chart, current junior Shane Stewart, has just 48 yards this season?

This is a recruiting problem, though not a new one.  Georgetown hasn't had an impact RB in years and has only had one 1,000 yard rusher in school history. Runners are hard to come by at Georgetown, more so when you're competing against six scholarship teams. Since 2005, only one GU player is even in the top 10 in school records for carries or yards in a season, and Joel Kimpela's 5.2 yard average in 2014 would be a full yard per carry better than any of this year's totals. The Hoyas had higher hopes for sophomore Naieem Kearney, but he hasn't seen action this season. Mason Gudger's two kickoff returns brought the Hoyas as much publicity as they've received all season, but at 5-9, 175, he has three yards on two carries and may be better suited for kickoffs than the trenches. And after Stewart, that's it for the bench. Impact positions like rushing are in demand, and Georgetown is not a destination.

The Hoyas' next two opponents each rank in the top third in FCS rushing defense, so expect more of the same.

2. Defensively Challenged: Followers of FCS football could be forgiven for seeing Fordham put up 59 on the Hoyas, well, they seem to put up that many on everyone. Few could have guessed a Penn team averaging a more modest 20.0 a game to torch the Georgetown defense a week later. The Quakers averaged 97 yards a game on the ground entering the game and picked up 187; an average of 227 yards in the air prior to Saturday netted 274.

Field position was important: in its first ten possessions, Penn started, on average,. at the Georgetown 48. That doesn't excuse the fact that, with just eight first downs after halftime, Penn scored five consecutive touchdowns, and only two drives were more than seven plays. 

The defense isn't very good, and that's concerning for the second half of the season with more traditional offenses like Colgate and Lafayette that will grind on the Hoyas defensively. Georgetown has given up an average of 51 points a game versus its last four opponents.

Yes, more scoring by the Hoyas would have helped--its second half points all came from Gudger's kickoffs, but would it have mattered? Without focused defense play up front, it's more of the same.

3. Remember That Name: This item from the Penn media notes, one reported on the ESPN+ broadcast:  WR Malone Howley's father "played basketball at Georgetown from 1985-89." 

Really, four years? Did someone check this?

Well, let's do so: his father Chris Howley graduated from Georgetown with a BSBA in 1989. But if he played basketball, it was at Yates. He's mentioned four times in the HOYA over four years, but each for intramural ball. "Point guard Tim Fording should rack up assists as he dishes off to forwards Ed Grefenstette, Chris Howley and football QB Matt Zebrowski," it wrote in 1986, and none of those ever saw the floor at Capital Centre.

In 1988, Howley scored seven first half points as  his team made it to the finals of the Early Bird Basketball Tournament at Yates, for what it's worth. But he wasn't on the varsity, period. Malone's grandfather Dan Howley (B'65) also was a Hoya, and he didn't play basketball either.

Chris Howley's professional bio does not mention such experiences, and let's assume someone at Penn's sports information office made a mistake. But if you're playing at Georgetown of all places, it might be worth a quick fact check before you say it on the air.

4. Around The PL: At the halfway point, all signs point to the Holy Cross-Fordham game on October 29 as the league title game, while the other five schools are a combined 5-23.

Fordham 40, Lehigh 28: The Engineers gave it a run but Tim DeMorat was just too good: 26-for-37 for 499 yards and four touchdowns. This week: Fordham hosts Stony Brook (0-5), Lehigh is at Cornell (2-2).

Princeton 23, Lafayette 2: The last time the Leopards were held to two points in a game was 1975, and it probably felt like the 1970's on Saturday. The Leopards had a total of   yards at halftime, 206 yards for the game, but never crossed the Tigers' 20. This week: The Leopards are off this week.

Holy Cross 57, Bucknell 0: It could have been worse. The Crusaders outagained the Bison 511-160, rushed 50 times for 314 yards, and collected turnovers on three of Bucknell's final five possessions. Bucknell allowed scores on each of HC's first eight possessions. This week: Holy Cross is off , while the winless Bison travel to Yale.

Week 5 Thoughts

Some thoughts following Fordham's 59-38 win over Georgetown Saturday:

1. Looking Back: The final was not unexpected. Yes, the early first quarter lead by the Hoyas proved surprising, but Fordham is a good team and good teams adjust. Unfortunately, Georgetown did not.

The Hoyas were likely to get points on the Rams' defense, because, well, everyone has this season. Fordham is weak in the middle of its secondary and Georgetown picked at this all game. The Hoyas' 38 points was the most it has scored against any PL opponent in 11 years, but it was never going to be enough against a Fordham team averaging a nation's best 51.8. 

That's a direct result of Fordham QB Tim DeMorat, who is going to be playing pro football next season. DeMorat has the size and temperament to be a very effective player at the next level because he reads the field of play very well and mixes up his targets. Six different receivers shared 21 completions last week, and if the idea of 21 receptions for 348 yards scares you a little, it should.

Strange as it sounds, the game wasn't won in the air but on the ground. Fordham outgained Georgetown 277-82, and it was even more pronounced when you review it on a quarter by quarter basis:

Fordham:

1st quarter: 19 yards

2nd quarter: 138 yards

3rd quarter: 51 yards

4th quarter: 74 yards

Georgetown:

1st quarter: 45 yards

2nd quarter: 2 yards

3rd quarter: 10 yards

4th quarter: 15 yards

Fordham entered the game allowing 187.5 yards a game and Georgetown got 82. The Hoyas' lack of rushing production has been a two decades long story in the PL and GU now averages 63.7 yards per game in its last four. 

2. Looking Ahead: Those rushing numbers will be challenging again on Saturday, as Penn arrives to Cooper Field holding opponents to just 2.4 yards a carry and 79.0 yards per game. Its September 24 game with Lafayette is as close a comparison as we can see to a PL team right now: the Quakers held the Leopards to one net yard rushing and a -50 in sacks and tackles for loss.

Penn (3-0) is off to its best start since its undefeated season of 2003, and that starts with defense. The Quakers rank second nationally in total defense, fifth in rushing, and eighth in passing. It's the best unit that Penn defensive coordinator (and former Georgetown coach) Bob Benson has had in his seven seasons at Franklin Field and it's a tall order for a Georgetown rushing offense that has gone backwards since its easy win over Marist.

3. Scholarship Blues: For reasons explained in depth on these pages, Georgetown's lack of scholarship support from the University is a direct factor in its annual records. But how have other PL teams fared since scholarships were introduced to the league? Here are the numbers in league play since 2014:

Colgate 32-13

Fordham 30-16

Holy Cross 28-17

Lehigh 26-20

Lafayette 18-28

Bucknell 16-30

Georgetown 9-35

If that's not bad enough, how about the last four seasons:

Holy Cross 13-1

Fordham 9-7

Lehigh 9-7

Colgate 8-7

Lafayette 7-9

Bucknell 5-11

Georgetown 2-12

4. Around The PL: Four games this week, with decided favorites in each.

Monmouth 35, Lehigh 7: The seat warms for Tom Gilmore as the Engineers (1-4) were taken out early and never recovered. Fewer than 3,000 at Goodman Stadium was not a good sign, either. This week: A home game with Fordham (4-1) does not look promising.

Cornell 34, Colgate 31: An upset of sorts given how the Big Red have trended in recent seasons. Cornell scored the final ten points of the game, including a field goal with 1:55 remaining to earn the win, sending the Red Raiders to 1-4. This week: idle.

Holy Cross 30, Harvard 21: The Crusaders (5-0) earned its first win in Cambridge in 19 years behind 300 passing yards and 63 rushing yards from Matthew Sluka. The Crimson were held to just seven points after halftime. This week: home versus Bucknell.

Lafayette 24, Bucknell 14: Just 1,370 in Lewisburg for this one, where  the Leopards'  A.T. Ntantang shut down the Bison (0-5) with an 80- yard interception returned for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. This week : Lafayette (2-3) hosts undefeated Princeton, while winless Bucknell, averaging 10.2 points per game, must play Holy Cross at its annual Polar Park game.