Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Week 8 Thoughts, After The Bye



Some thoughts following Colgate's 34-24 win over Georgetown this past Saturday:

1. A Milestone: Yes, a milestone, and not an encouraging one. Saturday's loss was the 100th loss in Patriot League play for Georgetown since 2001, which gets even less encouraging in comparison to the record at large: 24-100. 

Some numbers behind the 100:

1. The distribution across schools is fairly even. Putting aside two losses to exiting member Towson in 2001 and 2003, the records are as follows:

Bucknell: 7-13
Lafayette: 7-13
Holy Cross: 4-16
Fordham: 3-18
Colgate: 1-18
Lehigh: 1-20
(It does no one any good when GU's combined records against three of these opponents is 5-56.)

2. The average margin of defeat over these 100 games is 19 points. Twenty games have been decided by less than a touchdown, 20 games by four touchdowns or more. In the 24 wins, nine have been by less than a touchdown and one by four touchdowns or more

3. Of 40 Eastern schools who have played in the I-AA/FCS subdivision continuously since 2001, Georgetown and Cornell have the fewest winning seasons, just one each.

Two decades ago, Bob Benson warned everyone that would listen that it was going to be an uphill climb, but even the optimist in Benson would not have predicted how long it would take. Yes, it took Fordham 12 years, we thought at the time, but surely it wouldn't take Georgetown  that long, right? Benson won five PL games in five seasons. Kevin Kelly won ten in eight seasons, four of which was in the 2011 season alone. Rob Sgarlata stands at just nine.

Much time and digital ink has been spent on these pages discussing the whys of what got Georgetown to this place.  Institutionally, there's no good direction on where to improve things. If it were just the coaching, that's an easier call, but it's not. Better player recruiting and development is a given, bit how do you accomplish this against the PL admissions firewall? Scheduling remains parochial at best: while Lafayette will play Duke next fall, Georgetown likely welcomes that old friend, Marist, and we wonder why interest remains so low.

Georgetown has parallels elsewhere in college football: Vanderbilt is certainly one of them. It has never won an SEC championship, plays in the smallest stadium in the conference, has a overall conference winning record of .257, and is 1-28 in SEC play since the 2018 season. What it has that Georgetown does not is a TV contract for the ages: between 2025 and 2035, Vanderbilt will receive up to $1 billion in rights fees, and that buys a lot of sorrows.

But for all its sorrows, Vanderbilt doesn't compete like it's 2001 and neither should Georgetown. How do we invest in a future and not just pay for the present? Otherwise, it's more of the same.

2. Colgate, Redux: The Hoyas came as close to Collages as might be expected Saturday, but the defensive lapses continue unabated. Giving up six consecutive scoring drives is unacceptable no matter the defensive coordinator, the team captains or whoever is on the field. 

One statistic, as much as any, tells the story of the 2022 Georgetown Hoyas:  it is rated last in FCS (123rd) in third down conversions allowed, 56.8 percent. That keeps a lot of drives going, and leads to a lot of points. Colgate converted 10 third down drives last week and most led to scores. 

The losing streak has obscured some solid play by the offense, particularly in the passing game. Pierce Holley is 14th nationally in passing yards and Joshua Tomas is ninth in receiving yards. Post-season individual honors are rare for 1-6 teams, and both may be overlooked when all is said and done. But we shouldn't.

3. Around the PL: It's still two good teams and five weaker ones in the league, and those two collide Saturday in Worcester for, barring something completely unexpected, the PL championship.  Last week's games didn't change this trajectory a bit.

Bucknell 19, Lehigh 17: A late field goal ended a 13 game losing streak for the Bison, while the Tom Gilmore era at Bethlehem continues to grow darker. The Bison get a resurgent Colgate team this week, with three of its final four at home. Lehigh gets the buy and faces Holy Cross in two weeks. At present,  Lehigh's only win is the 21-19 win at Georgetown.

Holy Cross 24, Lafayette 21: A good game for both teams, and a view into the rapidly improving Leopards under John Troxell. HC needed a pair of late plays, including a score with 4:00 left, to hang on. A trap game? No, just the kind of good, strong test on the road the Crusaders will need to close out the season unbeaten, with  all eyes, at least those outside Easton and Lewisburg, to meet the mighty offense of Fordham.