Monday, August 28, 2023

2003 Schedule Preview

 


Coming off back to back 2-9 seasons, the stalwart Georgetown football fans out there could rightly ask: is there improvement ahead?

It starts with the schedule.

The 2023 Hoyas will face teams that posted a combined 63-58 record (.520) in 2022, with its non-conference opponents checking in at a 2022 record of 30-22 (.576). Three consecutive home games to open the season, the first such run since the opening to the 1981 season, will provide a barometer as to where this team figures to settle as the schedule steps up in competition. For the Hoyas to escape another 2-9 rut, early season wins are crucial.

Here's a brief look at the 2023 opponents.

Marist  (4-7 in 2022)

September 2, Cooper Field

Despite an 18-5-0 overall record versus the Red Foxes, Georgetown has not won four consecutive games over Marist in the Patriot League era. Entering this season opener, Georgetown has won three straight.

The lone relic from its MAAC football schedules of the 1990s, wins over Marist are not necessarily harbingers of good fortunes (as the last three years will suggest), but an early season loss to a Pioneer League team has been troublesome. A 14-12 loss in 2017 led Georgetown to a 1-10 season, its loss to the Red Foxes in 2013 began a run of eight consecutive losses, and a late season loss by Georgetown in 2009 was part of an 0-11 season. While no one will confuse this as a rivalry game beyond perhaps, the head coaches, an early season stumble is magnified by past performance.

The Red Foxes have finished wither 4-7 or 5-6 in 10 of the past 11 seasons. Returning seven starters on offense and six on defense, a 5-6 record is in reach this season, but Marist needs at least one win in a non-conference trio of Georgetown, Columbia, and Bucknell. Sophomore QB Brock Bagozzi threw for over 2100 yards last season and returns starting WR Will Downes (32-389-2), but the team's meager rushing numbers (84.5 per game) forced the action into the secondary last season.

Fifth year linebacker Mike Arrington leads a Marist  defense with led the PFL in passing defense, holding opponents to 15 passing touchdowns last season, with Georgetown's former QB Pierce Holley held to just 175 yards and one touchdown in last season's game, a contest decided on three Bagozzi interceptions and two blocked punts by the Georgetown  defense.

The Hoyas have averaged 41.6 points in each of its last three games versus the Red Foxes. Anything close to this would be a green light for a season opening win.

Sacred Heart (8-4)

September 9, Cooper Field

The presumed return game from a 2010 game played between the schools at Bridgeport, CT,  Sacred Heart makes its first ever visit to Washington.

The Pioneers finished 8-4 last season, matching its total from 2021. The 2023 team faces a significant rebuild, with just three returning starters on offense and three on defense. Running back Malik Grant ranked among the top 25 rushers in the nation last season, but SHU lost four starters on its line from last year.

Sacred Heart was picked third in the Northeast Conference pre-season poll, and Georgetown fans should get a better view of what to expect after its season opener with Lafayette. 

Stonehill (4-5)

September 16, Cooper Field

No, it's not the "Ed Cooley Classic", though the Stonehill grad will likely make a visit to the game en route to a scrimmage later than afternoon.

This is a game the Hoyas really need to win. The Skyhawks (nee Chieftains) are in its second season in Division I, having added football in Division II in 1999.  In its first season in the Northeast Conference, Stonehill was a creditable 4-5, although two of the wins came over Division II programs. Otherwise, Stonehill struggled in its opening season of NEC play and is picked sixth of eight NEC teams this upcoming season.

Stonehill is not Marist, however. Georgetown often struggles against scholarship talent and with 40 grants-in-aid, the Skyhawks are not a pushover.  Stonehill returns seven starters on offense and seven on defense, with quarterback Ashur Carraha (135-250-14), running back Jermaine Corbett (123-774-9) and wide receiver Cameron Alves (32-303-2) all returning.  A tough opener with New Hampshire and a road game at Central Connecticut precede this game for the Skyhawks, so anything better than an 0-2 start will be a clear and present danger to the Hoyas in its third consecutive home game.

at Columbia (6-4)

September 23, Wien Stadium

The off-season retirement of Al Bagnoli brings some unexpected change to the Lions entering 2023, as offensive coordinator Mark Fabish takes over as the interim coach in 2023. Bagnoli did what some say could not be done--he made Columbia a winner, with four winning seasons in its last five and a fifth place, 6-4 record in 2022, winning its final three over Harvard, Brown, and Cornell.

The Lions return its top three offensive contributors from last season, where Columbia ranked 5th in offense and in defense during the 2022 Ivy season. Having won four of its last five over Georgetown, Columbia will be favored to do the same in its home opener after opening up at Lafayette the week before.

Fordham (9-3)

81st Homecoming Game

September 30, Cooper Field

In its 11th appearance before a Homecoming crowd at Georgetown, but only its third since 1985, the Rams enter this game minus a major offensive option from 2022, but still appear to be a formidable opponent. 

Tim DeMorat left the Bronx this spring as the school's all-time passer, with a staggering 13,461 yards and 123 touchdowns. New Mexico transfer C.J. Montes opened this past weekend as the new signal caller in a 34-13 loss at Albany, but the Rams continue to be a difficult opponent for the Hoyas, having won 24 of the last 27 in the series and 18-3 in the Patriot League era, with GU's last home win coming in 2011. 

Fordham returns 12 seniors and fifth year students in is starting lineup, and will be favored in home games with Wagner and Stonehill before traveling to Georgetown at month's end. The key for the Hoyas will be to keep the scoring down: in the PL era,  the Hoyas are 2-1 when holding the Rams under 17 points and 1-17 when allowing 17 or more.


at Pennsylvania (8-2)

October 7, Franklin Field

In its last appearance in Philadelphia, the 2007 Hoyas were down 28-0 in the first quarter and never challenged in a 42-13 walkover. If last season is more relevant, the Quakers scored five consecutive touchdowns after halftime and clocked the Hoyas 59-28 en route to an 8-2 season. The last meeting of this current two game contract does not offer much hope for the Hoyas at midseason.

The Quakers are picked third in the 2023 Ivy pre-season poll, led by quarterback Aidan Sayin (253-390-18), who threw for four touchdowns in that game. Penn's defense held Georgetown to 34 yards rushing in 2022 and return six starters from that unit for 2023.

Road games at PL opponents Colgate  (Sep. 16) and Bucknell (Sep. 23) should provide a window into how the Quakers will be prepared for this game, having won all three versus Georgetown in the PL era. 


at Lehigh (2-9)

October 14, Goodman Stadium

Following its worst run since the 1960s, Tom Gilmore stepped aside as Lehigh coach last season, with longtime Yale assistant Kevin Cahill getting his first head coaching opportunity.

The Engineers are picked fifth in the pre-season PL poll, but have a lot of upside. Returning nine on offense and seven starters on defense, Lehigh was fourth in the PL in rushing and passing, but its 99.5 yards per game on the ground is  insufficient even for a passing team. (So too, Georgetown, with a league  low 81.9 yards per game last season). The Lehigh running game needs more production to give senior Dante Perri better opportunities downfield. Five games were decided in 2022 by four points or less, including Lehigh's 21-19 win at Georgetown. 

Lehigh will enter this game coming off three consecutive road games at Dartmouth, Monmouth and Fordham, and need to win two of them to maintain momentum heading into the second half of its schedule. The Engineers must improve upon a 17.2 points per game scoring average in 2022 to be more competitive in the PL and maintain its mastery over Georgetown, having won 20 of the last 21 versus Georgetown, with a 10-0 mark at Goodman Stadium.


Colgate (3-8)

October 21, Cooper Field

Much like Lehigh, 2022 was a poor season for Colgate, who nonetheless handled Georgetown 34-24 last season in Hamilton, NY. With a 3-5 record entering November, the Red Raiders dropped its final three games of the season.

Quarterback Michael Brescia returns his top two rushers and two of his top three receivers from last season, but Colgate lost a lot on defense and after having given up over 30 points a game last season. A challenging early schedule (road games at Syracuse, Villanova, and Holy Cross) will test its defensive sets from the start, where all-PL selections Tyler Flick (LB) and Owen Goss (DB) will be prominent. 

Much like last season, the Red Raiders could be well under .500 by the time they arrive in Washington, but it does not make them any less competitive in a series that has been one-sided from the start. A 40-17 win by the Hoyas in 2011 is the only win by Georgetown in this series in 19 games dating to 2001, and the Red Raiders have scored 28 or more points in each of the last six games versus the Hoyas


Lafayette (4-7)

October 28, Cooper Field

Optimism abounds in John Troxell's second season at College Hill, yet Lafayette fans still can't quite get over why the Leopards have struggled against one opponent in particular: in its last four seasons, Georgetown is 3-1 versus Lafayette and 4-16 versus all other PL teams.  

A September 9 game at Duke highlights the overall 2023 Lafayette schedule, one that should have the Leopards at or near .500 entering in its final road game of the season outside the Lehigh Valley. Coming off road games at Princeton and Holy Cross, Lafayette will look to this game as a momentum builder before the meat of its remaining schedule with home games with Colgate and Fordham before the finale at Lehigh.

Changes will be in evidence for the Leopards in 2023. An inexperienced offense in 2023 leads to more experience this fall, while a solid defense in 2022 must recover from the loss of its front four in 2023. Solving its rotating chair at quarterback will \help Lafayette, using three different quarterbacks last season to varying effect. If the Leopards have a solid #1 QB entering this game, they figure to be a strong challenge in Georgetown's senior day, where the Hoyas have not won their home finale since the 2014 season.

at Bucknell (3-8)

November 11, Christy Mathewson Memorial Stadium

Georgetown's last realistic hope of an upset in 2023 stands at Lewisburg, PA,. where it comes off a late bye week to face Bucknell, who tied Georgetown for last place in the 2023 PL poll.

As has been the case for many years, the Bucknell offense struggles to generate points (12.2 per game in 2022) and its defense must carry the weight. Quarterbacks Nick Semptimphelter and Tyler Beverett passed for just 803 yards last season between them, with four touchdowns and four interceptions between. Ralph Rucker, a junior transfer from Oklahoma, will compete for the starting role, but the Bison must generate more on the ground, averaging just over three yards a carry.

Senior Tyler Alston leads a Bucknell defense that ranked first in passing defense among Patriot League teams, holding opponents under 200 yards in the air, and first in interceptions. With all those numbers, the Bison were a mere 1-8 entering last season's game with the Hoyas, and followed it up with a win over Marist to finish 3-8.

Bucknell opens the 2023 season with James Madison, VMI, and Penn before entering PL play, and ends the season with Georgetown and Marist as in 2022. The Hoyas have averaged just 14.6 points per game in its last six meetings with the Bison, with each of the last three games being decided by eight points or less. The teams have split the last four meetings, and at this late point of the season, the team entering the game with the fewest injuries would be favored to win.


at Holy Cross (12-1)

November 18, Fitton Field

Barring injuries or an unforeseen upset, Holy Cross will arrive to Fitton Field at season's end to collect its fifth consecutive PL title, and Georgetown will not.

With seven first team preseason all-PL selections on offense, the Crusaders are well prepared for another championship run, led by senior quarterback and All-America candidate Matthew Sluka. Sluka threw for 2,489 yards last season but was equally effective on the ground, finishing atop the PL rushing yards list as a quarterback with 1,234 yards.  As Sluka averaged more per game on the ground (94.9 per game) that Georgetown did as a team (81.9), he's a unique dual-threat option, and one which took the Hoyas out early last season en route to a 47-10 win.

Fifth year senior Jacob Dobbs leads the Crusaders on defense, with the depth to reload on defense and justify a #5 preseason national ranking. Dobbs joined Sluka and OL Luke Newman as pre-season first team All-America selections.

The excellence of the HC program starts at the top, with sixth year coach Bob Chesney, 37-17 overall at Mt. St. James and a sterling 23-3 in conference play over his five seasons there. In his last three games against Georgetown, Chesney's Crusaders have won by an average of 31.6 points per game, and Holy Cross has averaged 34.2 points a game in each of the last seven wins in the series.

A strong non-conference slate awaits HC this season, but fans are cautiously optimistic in their chances with road games at Boston College, Yale, and Army, the latter coming the week before its regular season finale versus Georgetown. Road games at Fordham and Lehigh on back to back weekends in late October and early November appear to be the only trap games in league play for the Crusaders. 

The Massey Ratings service gives HC a 97% chance of winning this game with Georgetown,  and the Hoyas have not shown much in the way of late season momentum in recent years. Georgetown has not won a season finale since 2014, where it won at the road at, of all places, Holy Cross, 21-16. The Crusaders have been held to 16 or fewer points just once in the last four seasons and was held to a season low 21 in 2022 by South Dakota State, the eventual FCS national champions.

That same rating service predicts Georgetown to finish... 2-9. Can the Hoyas prove them wrong?