Some thoughts following Georgetown's 28-24 win over Fordham Saturday:
1. Threading The Needle: The win was as unique as it was celebratory--this doesn't happen very often in Georgetown football annals. And at least two head coaches have to be asking what lessons can be found from one of the Patriot League's largest upsets of the past decade.
If you're Fordham coach Joe Conlin, the clues are in plain sight. For much of the last three seasons, Fordham has been a high reward, high risk team, dependent on big offensive outputs to cover what have been visible gaps in its defensive sets. The 2022 Fordham team which reached the NCAA FCS playoffs scored a phenomenal 49.5 points a game, but also gave up 36.1. Fordham had lost eight consecutive games since the 2019 season when scoring 24 or fewer more points and the offensive output in its last there games, totaling 43.3 points a game, was neither past nor prologue.
In that sense, the halftime statistics were a four alarm fire for the Fordham coaching staff: 83 total yards, 0 for 5 on third downs, and seven points against a Georgetown defense that had not faced significant competition in its first four games of the season. The Fordham coaches were fortunate, if once can call it that, that Georgetown had not taken full advantage of that first half, with two interceptions and a fourth down stall at the Fordham 15 which could have extended the deficit even further. In that sense, 14-7 was a margin that could be overcome...until it wasn't.
Naieem Kearney's 70 yard run changed this game in a big way, but the Rams still scored on three of its first four second half drives and nearly pulled off a catch at the end. This takes nothing away from Tyler Knoop's game winning drive, which was as good as any single Georgetown drive since Stephen Skon led the Hoyas to upset Princeton in the final minute a decade ago. (In one sense, this was the biggest program win since that Princeton game in that it got attention beyond the campus and web sites like this, but it little remembered otherwise.)
If you're Rob Sgarlata, this was a game where Georgetown successfully threaded a needle between staying in a game early , throwing a curve ball to its opponents (sorry to mix the sports metaphors there) with its offensive game plan, and being able to dictate time of possession in ways Georgetown is usually unable to do.
Compare the first quarter of Fordham versus Columbia a week ago: the Lions outgained Georgetown 122 to minus-18. In this game, the Hoyas outgained the Rams 110 to 40.
One of the textbook traits of great upsets is the power of controlling the flow of a game. An upstart team doesn't come back down 21 or 28 to Alabama or Georgia because they do not control the game. Georgetown got up early in this game and put themselves in a position to win at the end. This they did, and congratulations go to the players, the staff, and the coaches for making it happen.
2. Rule of 22: Saturday's win is even more extraordinary given a longstanding statistical anomaly among Georgetown teams, which I call the Rule of 22.
In the Patriot League era (2001-present), Georgetown played 232 games entering Saturday's meeting with Fordham, averaging just 17.6 points per game. Just as there is a statistical floor by which Georgetown cannot lose (e.g., GU is 4-0 when holding opponents to no points in a game), there is a statistical point of no return where Georgetown does not win games. Averaging 17 points doesn't help, but even when it scores more, the law of diminishing returns sets in.
Is it 40 points? Or 50 Actually, it's a mere 22. Saturday's game was the 142nd game since 2001 where Georgetown allowed more than 22 points to an opponent. Following Saturday's final, the Hoyas are 5-137 (0.035) when allowing 22 or more points, its first win since a 52-28 win over Marist in 2011.
3. Lessons For Penn: Georgetown's task entering Saturday's gamer at begins with addressing Penn's strength on defense.
The Quakers enter the game ranked fourth nationally in defense - a far cry from Fordham at 63rd. Defense has been the calling card of Penn defensive coordinator and former Georgetown head coach Bob Benson since his days at Johns Hopkins in the early 1990s, and it begins on the ground, where Penn leads the nation allowing just 34 yards a game. Kearney's 114 yards against Fordham notwithstanding, Georgetown stays in this game Saturday in the air, something Tyler Knoop has been inconsistent with this season. Knoop's 221 yards versus Fordham was a career high, but the Quakers allowed just 118 to Dartmouth last week.
Defensively, the Hoyas need to control Penn's passing game. Quarterback Aidan Sayin was 37 for 57 for 383 yards last week against Dartmouth but managed only two touchdowns in a 23-20 overtime loss. The Hoyas were able to contain Fordham's passing game but not before it could generate offense of its own, and that is the recipe for this game: GU cannot afford to play from behind and let Penn dictate the course of the game, For all its yardage last week against Dartmouth, Penn never led in the game.
4. Franklin Field: Saturday's game is the last of an announced two game series with Pennsylvania, and it makes too much sense that these teams should play regularly, but don't. This is only the eighth meeting all time between the schools, and the fourth since 1937 .
Saturday is the fourth meeting for Georgetown at Franklin Field, and I can't say enough about how it is one of the great stadiums in the panoply of college football.
Sofi Stadium, it is not, and that's OK. It's old, but is it majestic and harkens back to better days for Ivy League football. Gone, perhaps, are the sellout crowds (Penn averaged just 12 percent capacity last season, or 6,853 a game) but it's a fun place to watch a game, and has seen its share of great finishes. This YouTube clip from 1982 is one example--listen to the crowd of over 34,000 for this game:
Nonetheless, Franklin Field is a shrine to over 100 years of college football, and if you've never been to a game there and can visit it this Saturday, you are well advised to do so. And yes, I hope the Hoyas can get back there soon.
5. Around The PL: Entering week six, there are some definite story lines building.
Colgate 35, Cornell 25: The Red Raiders ended a seven game losing streak with a flourish, coming back to score 21 points in the fourth quarter for the win before a hearty Homecoming crowd of 12,525 at Cornell's Schoellkopf Field. Colgate converted 10 third downs and held Cornell to 4 for 16 on third down conversions. A tough test awaits Colgate in two weeks at its Homecoming game versus Dartmouth, but they look ready to compete in PL play.
Monmouth 49, Lehigh 7: No such news at South Mountain, where the Engineers dropped to 1-4 giving up 42 unanswered points in the rain before 3,266 at Monmouth's Kessler Stadium. The Hawks put up 619 yards of total offense and held Lehigh to 2 for 13 on third down conversions. Averaging just 13 points a game to date, Lehigh faces a tall order against a Fordham team looking to resteady its offensive throughput following its loss to Georgetown.
Lafayette 56, Bucknell 22; Down the road, better times at Lafayette, where a 56-22 thumping of Bucknell before an announced crowd of 4,283 at Fisher Stadium has the Leopards on a three game win streak heading into a game at Princeton, where lots of bad luck has followed the Leopards over the years. In this game, Lafayette scored six consecutive touchdowns in the first half, and never looked back. Bucknell gets a touch assignment at Holy Cross this week.
Harvard 38, Holy Cross 28: This was no upset--Harvard took the Crusaders' best shot and emerged victorious before 7,906 at Worcester's Polar Park. Five HC turnovers, including three interceptions by Matthew Sluka, proved the difference. Only one home game remains for the Crusaders before the season finale with Georgetown, but they remain favored in every game remaining except a November 11 nationally televised game at Army.
